Bengals vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can Denver Cover?)

Denver is favored at home on Monday night.

The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix are 0-2-1 against the spread this season. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The final matchup in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season features the 1-2 Denver Broncos looking to snap a two-game skid against the 2-1 Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincy is down starting quarterback Joe Burrow (toe) until at least December, and that’s put the team in a tough spot to contend for a playoff spot in the AFC. After getting blown out by the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 with Jake Browning under center, the Bengals are set as sizable underdogs at the best betting sites for this matchup. 

However, Denver has yet to cover the spread in a game this season (0-2-1), and it’s struggled a bit on offense overall, ranking 20th in EPA/Play. On top of that, the Broncos have lost two games in a row on last-second field goals, struggling to execute at a high level in the fourth quarter.

Does that give Cincy a chance to pull off a road upset on Monday night?

This season, the SI Betting team is sharing a final score prediction for every game as a fun way to help bettors decide on spread and total bets. 

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this AFC battle in Denver. 

Bengals vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Bengals +7.5 (-115)
• Broncos -7.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Bengals: +300
• Broncos: -380

Total

• 44.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

There has not been any real line movement for this matchup since the odds opened, and the Broncos’ lone win in 2025 did come at home.

Can Jake Browning bounce back from a terrible showing in a blowout loss to the Minnesota Vikings? The Bengals are 1-1 against the spread in games that he’s played in and 1-2 ATS overall in 2025. 

Bengals vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week: 

I was high on Jake Browning and the Bengals last week, and they let me down. I didn't give enough credit to how a good defense like the Vikings can do to a backup quarterback and a poorly coached offense. Now, the Bengals find themselves in an extremely similar situation when they have to hit the road to take on arguably the best defense in the league. If the Vikings' secondary threw Browning for a loop, the Broncos' secondary can do exactly the same.

The Bengals now rank 31st in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.4 while also ranking last in EPA per play and 21st in opponent EPA per play. We may need to start treating the Bengals as a bottom-five team in the league, and if that's true, the Broncos are the clear side to back in this one, especially on their home field.

This is a make or break game for Denver, as it cannot afford another loss to an AFC opponent, especially one that it should be able to beat at home.

The Broncos’ offense (20th in EPA/Play) is concerning this season, but the defense is still eighth in EPA/Play and 11th in yards per play allowed in 2025. 

Browning struggled mightily against an elite defense in Minnesota in Week 3, and I expect a similar result on Monday night.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 26, Bengals 16

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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