Best Against the Spread Bets, Predictions for Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl 59

Iain MacMillan, Peter Dewey | Feb 6, 2025

The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites to the Eagles in Super Bowl 59. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Super Bowl is almost here! If you haven't already, it's time to place your bets.

There are an almost unlimited amount of ways to bet on the big game and I have personally placed 59 different wagers on Super Bowl 59, which you can check out here. Placing that many bets is certainly not something I recommend, so let's instead focus on the main wager; who will win and cover the spread.

If you're a more casual bettor, there's a good chance this will be your only bet, so it's worth diving into a little further. Myself and my fellow NFL betting insider, Peter Dewey, have both broke down our pick to cover the spread in this Super Bowl rematch.

Super Bowl 59 Spread Bets

• Chiefs -1.5 (-110) vs. Eagles via Peter Dewey
• Chiefs -1.5 (-110) vs. Eagles via Iain MacMillan

Peter Dewey's Super Bowl 59 Spread Bet

I don’t love betting strictly off trends, but when it comes to Patrick Mahomes, the trends just keep on hitting.

In his playoff career, Mahomes is a perfect 7-0 against the spread when it is set inside three points, and he enters this game as a 1.5-point favorite.

The Eagles went a perfect 3-0 against the spread in every game that they were dogs in this season, but this is a whole different scenario.

Kansas City’s run defense was one of the best in the NFL this season, allowing just 4.1 yards per carry. That could be a major problem for a Philly team that ran the ball more times than anyone else during the regular season.

Saquon Barkley has been the driving force for Philly in the playoffs, but if the team is forced to lean on Jalen Hurts, I think that’s a huge advantage for the Chiefs.

It’s hard to have any questions about Mahomes or Reid given their postseason success together, and Kansas City’s offense scored more than 30 points for the first time this season in the AFC title game. Does that open the floodgates entering Super Bowl LIX?

Even if it doesn’t I’m almost always going to side with the better quarterback in a game that’s expected to be this close. Mahomes and the Chiefs will cover to complete the three-peat on Sunday. -- Peter Dewey

Iain MacMillan's Super Bowl 59 Spread Bet

You probably came to this article hoping for differing opinions so I'm sorry to disappoint you by saying I'm also backing the Chiefs to win and cover as short favorites.

With that being said, there's still a case to be made for the Eagles to knock off the back-to-back champions. They outrank the Chiefs in almost every single statistic and measure you can find. The few areas Kansas City ranks above the Eagles in are pass pass-protection, third down conversion percentage, and success rate.

If you were to look at this game from a pure numbers standpoint, the Eagles are likely a good bet as underdogs.

Unfortunately, football games aren't decided solely by stats, a lesson I've learned later than I should have. After backing the better statistical team in many playoff games and Super Bowls the Chiefs have been in, they have proven me wrong over and over again. There is an immeasurable "clutch" factor that Kansas City thrives in during big games and Patrick Mahomes has already established himself as one of the best big-game quarterbacks in NFL history.

Mahomes has had seven postseason starts where he has averaged 0.5 EPA per play. No other QB in NFL history has more than three, including the GOAT Tom Brady. How's that for a stat?

I won't get fooled by the Chiefs again. I'll back Kansas City at -1.5. - Iain MacMillan

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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