Best College Basketball Predictions and Picks Today (How to Bet March Madness Final Four)

Brian Giuffra | Apr 5, 2025

Duke forward Cooper Flagg (center) should have a big game in the Final Four. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is down to the Final Four in what's been a chalky March Madness betting affair so far. All four No. 1 seeds advanced for the first time since 2008 and for the second time ever. 

If you’ve been betting on the favorites this tournament, you’ve certainly won, as a 3 seed was the lowest to make the Elite Eight. Now it gets tougher as only the best-of-the-best remain. It’s Florida vs Auburn first in an SEC affair followed by Duke vs Houston. The winners advance to the finals on Monday. 

These were the four best teams in KenPom’s ratings and the odds suggest we’re in for two great games. Let’s jump into it starting with the odds, which all come from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Florida vs. Auburn Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Florida -2.5 (-110)
• Auburn +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Florida: -155
• Auburn: +130

Total

161.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Houston vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Houston +5.5 (-120)
• Duke -5.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Houston: +220
• Duke: -270

Total

136.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Best College Basketball Bets Today, NCAA Tournament Second Round

• Auburn Moneyline (+125) 
• Duke -5.5 (+100) 
• Cooper Flagg OVER 18.5 points (-114)

Auburn vs Florida Prediction and Pick 

In his betting preview for this SEC showdown, Peter Dewey backed Florida based on their edge at guard, writing the following: 

I believe that Florida has the edge at guard with Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard, and Auburn’s trump card (Broome) may not be 100 percent. 

While that may be true, there’s no reason to believe Johni Broome isn’t playing for Auburn and I believe the Tigers have the better defense, which should be the difference in what could be a high-scoring affair where stops down the stretch will swing momentum. 

Auburn holds opponents to a 45.8% effective field goal percentage and limits opponents to 29.6% from 3-point range. While the Gators did make 13 3-pointers against Aubrn in their regular-season win, Auburn will have learned from that and be more focused on shutting down the Gators' perimeter players this time around. If they do that, they can pull the upset.

Pick: Auburn Moneyline (+125 at DraftKings) 

Duke vs Houston Prediction and Pick 

Simply put, Duke is the best team in college basketball and it seems inevitable it will cut down the nets on Monday. 

This won’t be a walkover by any stretch. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country and should keep this close. But Duke’s ability to get multiple players going on offense will be the difference here. 

The Blue Devils like to get downhill toward the basket with their athletic wings and guards and either let them take it to the rim or dish it out to the perimeter for a 3-pointer. Houston is likewise aggressive on defense, doubling the ball early and then rushing back to protect the basket. Duke should be able to exploit that, especially when Cooper Flagg has the ball in his hands. 

Pick: Duke -5.5 (+100 at DraftKings) 

Which brings us to…

Duke vs Houston Prop Bet

The likely No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft, Cooper Flagg should have a strong performance against a Houston defense that could be overmatched as the game progresses. 

J'Wan Roberts will likely get the defensive assignment against Flagg, but Flagg’s ability off the dribble could prove too much for him. Joseph “JoJo” Tugler will also play a role in defense, but I don’t see either being able to match Flagg outside to inside. 

Flagg’s ability to shoot from deep and drive the basket makes him a nightmare to defend. Houston will likely double him early and often, but as the game progresses I expect Flagg to wear them down and find openings. I also think Duke will put the ball in his hands late and he’s an excellent free-throw shooter, which should help him go over this number. 

I'm betting this one on FanDuel because the juice is better.

Pick: Cooper Flagg OVER 18.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)

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