Best College Football Bets Today for Week 6 (Predictions for Purdue-Illinois, Mississippi State-Texas A&M)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 4, 2025

Mississippi State is a big underdog against Texas A&M and Week 6 of the college football season. / Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 6 of the college football season has already begun, with Thursday and Friday both having some games for us to watch to bet on. Now, it's time for the main course. With today's big slate, it can be tough to figure out which wagers to lock in.

If you want a few suggestions, I'm here to help out. Let's take a look at my top three.

Best College Football Bets Today

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Purdue +9.5 (-115) vs. Illinois
• Mississippi State +16.5 (-125) vs. Texas A&M
• Florida State +158 vs. Miami

Purdue +9.5 (-115) vs. Illinois

This is a big sell-high spot on Illinois after its win against USC last week. I'm not buying that they're 10 points better at Purdue in this Big Ten matchup. The Fighting Illini are just 84th in the country in adjusted EPA this season, two spots below Purdue at 82nd. It's also worth noting that Purdue leans more on the passing game than the run game, and Illinois ranks 95th in opponent dropback EPA. The Boilermakers have the stylistic advantage in this game.

Mississippi State +16.5 (-125)

We have the opposite situation as above in this game between Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs run the ball on 57.84% of their plays, the 30th highest percentage amongst all teams. In Week 6, they'll face a Texas A&M team that has a strong secondary but has struggled to stop the run. The Aggies rank 66th in opponent rush EPA and allow teams to average 4.76 yards per rush. This advantage for Mississippi State is enough to help them cover this 16.5-point spread.

Florida State +158 vs. Miami

In this week's upset article, I broke down why Florida State taking down Miami in an All-Florida ACC showdown is my favorite upset pick of the weekend:

This game is the ultimate buy-low/sell-high spot. Florida State is coming off a tough loss against Virginia in Week 5, while Miami is undefeated on the season, stringing together a couple of impressive victories. The advanced metrics still love Florida State, despite the loss, ranking sixth in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards per Play number of +2.04. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes rank 11th in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards Per Play of +2.04. The Seminoles are live to win this battle of Florida.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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