Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Aaron Judge, James Wood)

Can Aaron Judge go deep again on Monday?

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Monday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Monday’s MLB action features a little bit of a shortened slate, but that doesn’t stop the SI Betting team making some player prop picks!

Specifically, we share our favorite home run props every day during the MLB season, and I’m eyeing a few players, including New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge, to start this week.

Playoff spots are up for grabs over the last few weeks of the regular season, and there are some hitters that have gotten red hot to help carry their squads to a better spot in the standings.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the best home run props for Monday night’s action. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Sept. 15

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+430)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+202)
• Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+459)

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Washington Nationals youngster James Wood has 27 home runs in the 2025 season, but he hasn't hit for a ton of power over the last month, going yard just two times in his last 25 games.

However, I love Monday’s matchup for Wood against Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider. This season, Strider has a 4.86 ERA and has allowed 18 home runs in 20 starts. On top of that, Wood is 2-for-2 against Strider in his young career.

Against right-handed pitching this season, Wood is hitting .251 with an .838 OPS and 17 of his 27 home runs. At +430, he’s worth a look in this market, especially since the Braves also have a shaky bullpen (4.25 ERA, 72 homers allowed) so far this season.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+202)

Judge hit another home run on Sunday night against the Boston Red Sox, pushing his season-long total to 48 entering Monday’s matchup with the Minnesota Twins.

Over the last week, Judge is hitting .429 with five home runs and nine hits, and he’s homered 11 times over the last 28 days (26 games).

On Monday, the MVP candidate will take on Twins righty Simeon Woods Richardson, who enters this start with a 4.58 ERA and 16 home runs allowed in 20 appearances in 2025. 

Judge has crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a .323 batting average, 1.086 OPS and 34 home runs. He’s a great bet to keep this hot streak going on Monday.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+459)

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson has a great matchup on Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds and righty Zack Littell. 

This season, Littell has allowed 34 home runs in 29 appearances, and while he has a 3.78 ERA, his Fielding Independent Pitching is all the way up at 4.94 – a sign that he’s due for a little regression at some point in 2025.

Burleson has crushed right-handed pitching this season, homering 14 times while posting a .288 batting average and an .812 OPS. He’s only homered one time in his last six games, but I think Burleson is worth a look against a home-run prone starter like Littell.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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