Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Aaron Judge, William Contreras)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Monday, Aug. 11, including a bet for Aaron Judge.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a solid prop target on Monday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

What better way to kick off the week than cashing in on a player prop with some long odds?

One way to do that is by betting on some home run props for the Major League Baseball action on Monday, and there are a few players that I believe are worth considering in this 11-game slate.

Home run props are tough to predict, but the SI Betting team shares our favorite plays every day during the MLB season.

Tonight, I’m targeting William Contreras, who has been red hot for the Milwaukee Brewers, and one MVP candidate that may be undervalued entering Monday’s action. 

Let’s dive into the odds for these home run props and the breakdown as to why these players are worth a look on Monday night. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• William Contreras to Hit a Home Run (+400)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+165)
• Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+360)

William Contreras to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Contreras has been hot as of late for the Brewers, as he homered twice on Sunday against the New York Mets and has homered three times in his last two games.

Overall, Contreras has six homers over the last 14 days while posting a .354 batting average and a 1.217 OPS.

At +400, Contreras is certainly worth a shot on Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates and lefty Andrew Heaney, who has allowed 22 home runs in 23 appearances this season while posting a 4.77 ERA.

Contreras has a .746 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, and he’s 3-for-6 with a pair of doubles against Heaney in his career. I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit a home run for the third game in a row on Monday. 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+165)

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is still the favorite to win the AL MVP award, but he has struggled since coming off the injured list, going 3-for-15 without a home run in five games.

However, I’m buying low on Judge on Monday against the Minnesota Twins and starter Zebby Matthews, who has allowed four homers in eight starts this season while posting a 5.17 ERA. 

So far this season, Judge has hit 26 home runs against right-handed pitching while posting a .341/.434/.662 slash line. While he’s never faced Matthews in his career, I think it’s only a matter of time before the Yankees superstar gets back to his home-run hitting ways.

He’s worth a look on Monday night, especially since the Twins have the seventh-worst bullpen ERA (4.33) in baseball. 

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+360)

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson has 14 home runs this season, but he’s dominated right-handed pitching, hitting .283 with 12 homers and an .812 OPS.

On Monday, Burleson will take on a weak Colorado Rockies pitching staff and young right-hander Chase Dollander, who was recently recalled from Triple-A to return to the team’s rotation.

Prior to being sent down, Dollander had posted a 6.68 ERA across 15 starts, allowing 15 home runs and 74 hits in just 68.2 innings of work.

There won’t be many better matchups for Burleson, as the Rockies bullpen has struggled this season as well, allowing an MLB-high 69 home runs while posting a 5.50 ERA.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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