Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Paul Goldschmidt to go Deep vs. Angels)

Iain MacMillan | Jun 19, 2025

Paul Goldschmidt is a great bet to hit a home run on Thursday night. / Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

We weren't able to cash in on a home run bet yesterday, but that's the price of doing business in the home run market. Some days, you aren't going to hit a winner.

We go back to the drawing board today with plenty of options across the Majors. Let's dive into my top three home run bets for Thursday's action and see if we can bounce back from yesterday's performance.

Top Home Run Picks Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• C.J. Abrams Home Run (+430)
• Paul Goldschmidt Home Run (+390)
• Jonathan Aranda Home Run (+450)

C.J. Abrams Home Run (+430)

James Wood is the power bat in the Washington Nationals' lineup, but don't discount their shortstop, C.J. Abrams, who has a .466 slugging percentage despite just hitting nine home runs on the season. His slugging percentage number tells me that more home runs are on the horizon for Abrams, and this afternoon is a great opportunity when they face Chase Dollander of the Colorado Rockies, who has allowed 2.3 home runs per nine innings pitched this season, the second most amongst all starting pitchers.

Paul Goldschmidt Home Run (+390)

The New York Yankees are set to take on the Los Angeles Angels this afternoon, but more importantly, they're scheduled to face a left-handed starter in Tyler Anderson, who has allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings pitched this season.

To take advantage of that, let's target Paul Goldschmidt, who has been significantly better against lefties this season. His batting average improves from .259 against righties to .414 against lefties, and his slugging percentage almost doubles, from .350 to .686. Also, four of his seven home runs this season have been against left-handed pitchers. All of that adds up to him being a fantastic home run bet at Yankee Stadium this afternoon.

Jonathan Aranda Home Run (+450)

I'm targeting Jonathan Aranda to hit a home run during tonight's slate of action when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays are set to take on Charlie Morton, who has a 6.05 ERA and a home run rate of 1.5 dingers allowed per nine innings pitched.

Aranda enters tonight's game with the second-best slugging percentage on the Rays of .496. While he has just eight home runs this season, it's clear he has the power to start hitting plenty of dingers in a hurry.

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