Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Rafael Devers, Teoscar Hernandez)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run during the MLB action on Wednesday, Sept. 17.

San Francisco Giants first baseman Rafael Devers is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

A little afternoon baseball calls for a few long shot bets, and the SI Betting team is back with some more home run props on Sept. 17.

Every day here at SI Betting, we share our favorite home run picks, which usually feature some pretty long odds. They may be tough to cash, but there have been quite a few that have hit in recent weeks as the playoffs approach.

Today, I’m targeting Rafael Devers , Teoscar Hernandez and a Kansas City Royals slugger who are all 3/1 or longer to leave the yard.  

Here’s a complete breakdown of each home run prop for the 15-game slate in Major League Baseball on Wednesday. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, Sept. 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+495)
• Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+334)
• Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+481)

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+495)

Yes, Rafael Devers has struggled as of late for the San Francisco Giants, hitting just .159 over the last two weeks, but I believe that he’s mispriced in this market on Wednesday afternoon.

Devers is facing Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt, who has given up 24 home runs in 30 appearances this season while posting a shaky 5.31 ERA. On top of that, the D-Backs have the fourth-worst bullpen ERA (4.76) backing him up.

That sets up well for Devers, who has hammered right-handed pitching to the tune of a .890 OPS and 22 of his 31 homers in 2025. 

For a player that already has eclipsed 30 homers, getting Devers at nearly 5/1 is worth a shot in this matchup. 

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+334)

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez will look to take advantage of a favorable matchup on Wednesday, as he’s 3-for-5 with a pair of extra-base hits against Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo in his career.

Luzardo has only given up 14 home runs in the 2025 season, but righties are hitting .260 against him. Plus, they’ve hit all 14 homers that Luzardo has allowed.

Hernandez is hitting .321 over the last week, and he’s homered three times in the last 14 days (12 games) for the Dodgers. Against lefties this season, the veteran outfielder has homered six times while posting a solid .780 OPS.

It’s clear he’s seen the ball well against Luzardo in the past, so I don’t mind taking a shot on him to go deep in this late-night matchup. 

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+481)

Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is another player that I believe is undervalued in this market on Wednesday.

He’s taking on righty Bryce Miller, who has given up 14 home runs for the Seattle Mariners in 15 appearances in 2025. Miller also has a 5.59 ERA and has allowed 75 hits in 75.2 innings of work.

Pasquantino has limited at-bats against the Mariners righty, but he has hammered right-handed pitching overall in 2025, posting a .277 batting average with 25 of his 30 home runs. 

Over the last week, Pasquantino is hitting .320, and he’s homered six times in his last 25 games while posting a .853 OPS. 

Like Devers, he shouldn’t be priced at nearly 5/1 odds to leave the yard on Wednesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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