Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Juan Soto on Thursday)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Thursday, Sept. 18.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Thursday. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Thursday’s MLB action features a few less games than usual, as some teams are on a travel day after wrapping up their early-week series on Wednesday.

Despite that, there are still plenty of games to consider when it comes to the home run prop market, and I’m eyeing New York Yankees star Aaron Judge to headline today’s picks.

Every day, the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run props with the goal of hitting some long shot bets in the process.

It’s not always easy to cash in on these bets, but targeting the right pitching matchups – and some hot hitters – can help narrow down the top options.

Let’s break down some of the players for Thursday’s action and the case for them to leave the yard.  

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 18

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+388)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+211)
• Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+318)

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+388)

Toronto Blue Jays star George Springer has remained red hot in the month of September, hitting .414 over the last week and .351 with eight home runs over the last 28 days (24 games). 

Springer has 29 home runs in the 2025 season, and he has a great matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz on Thursday afternoon.

Baz enters this outing with a 5.15 ERA and 26 home runs allowed in 29 starts. Springer should be able to tee off on the righty, as he’s hitting .322 with 21 of his 29 home runs against right-handed pitching.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+211)

It’s hard to find a better matchup than the one that Judge has one Thursday night.

The New York Yankees open their series with the Baltimore Orioles, and Judge is facing lefty Cade Povich for the third time in his career.

In his previous five plate appearances against the Orioles lefty? Two home runs and three walks. Not bad!

Povich has given up 17 home runs in 20 appearances in the 2025 season, and Judge has been one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties this season.

The Yankees superstar is hitting .339 with a 1.260 OPS against lefties, smacking 14 home runs in just 112 at bats. He’s a great target on Thursday night. 

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+318)

New York Mets slugger Juan Soto has been hot over the last month, hitting .313 with 10 home runs over the last 28 days (26 games).

On Thursday afternoon, Soto will take on the San Diego Padres and Randy Vasquez, who ranks in the sixth percentile in expected ERA and the ninth percentile in barrel percentage in the 2025 season.

In his career against Vasquez, Soto is 1-for-3 with a home run. Against righties this season, the Mets star has homered 31 times while posting a .987 OPS. 

Vasquez has been far from lights out in 2025, and he’s given up 15 homers in 25 appearances. I think he’s an easy fade candidate against this New York offense.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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