Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Aaron Judge, Trevor Story on Friday)

Breaking down the best home run prop bet picks for the MLB action on Friday, Sept. 5.

New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Friday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Friday’s MLB action features a loaded slate of games, and there are plenty of players to consider in the prop market.

Every day here at SI Betting, we break down our favorite home run picks, and there are a few hitters that I’m looking at for Sept. 5. 

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge and Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story are two hitters that have great matchups on Friday, as they’ve dominated the starting pitchers that they’re going up against. 

Let’s dive into the full breakdown for each of these props on Friday, as we aim to get the weekend started with a plus-money hit! 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Friday, Sept. 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+260)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)
• Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+260)

Chicago Cubs infielder Michael Busch has crushed right-handed pitching in the 2025 season, and he has a great matchup on Friday against Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

This season, Irvin has allowed 31 home runs in 28 appearances while posting a 5.42 ERA. Since Aug. 1, Irvin has allowed eight home runs in six outings.

Busch is hitting .273 against right-handed pitching  with 24 of his 26 home runs coming against them in 2025. Over the last two weeks, he’s only homered twice, but he’s been one of the better left-handed bats for the Cubs all season.

Plus, the Nationals bullpen behind Irvin is extremely gettable. Washington ranks dead last in bullpen ERA (5.35) and it’s allowed 70 homers in 2025.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Judge and the Yankees face off with the Toronto Blue Jays in a massive weekend series, and Game 1 features a starting pitcher that Judge has dominated in his MLB career.

Kevin Gausman (3.75 ERA this season) gets the ball for Toronto, and he’s allowed 20 home runs in 27 appearances in 2025. While Gausman isn’t usually one of the prime pitchers to fade in this market – he is when he’s facing Judge.

In his career against Gausman, Judge is hitting .356 (16-for-45) with three doubles, six homers, 12 RBIs and 11 walks. He’s posted an OPS of 1.322 against Gausman in his career.

That’s hard to look past, especially since Judge has been heating up over the last week, hitting .304 with a pair of homers. He’s a great bet in this series opener on Friday. 

Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Story is looking to build on a strong 2025 campaign for Boston on Friday, as the Sox hit the road to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Eduardo Rodriguez is on the mound for Arizona in this one, and he’s posted a 5.40 ERA this season while allowing 21 homers in 24 outings. Not only that, but Rodriguez has a weak bullpen behind him, as the D-Backs are 26th in bullpen ERA (4.65) and have allowed 60 homers in the 2025 campaign.

This sets up well for Story, who has homered 23 times in 2025, including six long balls and a .757 OPS against left-handed pitching. He’s also crushed Rodriguez in his career, going 5-for-10 (.500) with a pair of doubles and 1.245 OPS. 

While he’s never homered against the lefty, he has shown that he can hit him with relative ease.

At +550, Story is worth a dart throw on Friday night. He’s homered four times over the last two weeks and has a .304 batting average over the last seven days. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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