Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Byron Buxton, Matt Olson)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run for the MLB action on Sunday, July 20.

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is a great prop target on Sunday. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Major League Baseball is back in full swing after the All-Star break, and Sunday features a loaded slate of games with a ton of afternoon start times.

When it comes to betting on MLB, one of the most exciting ways to do so is in the prop market – specifically by betting on home run props. 

Every day at SI Betting, we share our favorite players to bet on to leave the yard, and there are three sluggers that I believe are worth a shot on Sunday.

One of these starts – Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton – was in the Home Run Derby this past week, while another player I’m eyeing has +850 (!!) odds to leave the yard.

Can we cash in on one of these plus-money props?

Here’s a breakdown of the picks for Sunday’s action. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, July 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+320)
• Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+850)
• Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+175)

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson is hitting .333 over the last week, getting off to a solid start out of the All-Star break against the New York Yankees.

On Sunday, he’ll take on veteran starter Marcus Stroman, who has struggled to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in the 2025 season.

Olson (17 homers in 2025) could be in line for a big game, especially since Stroman has given up four home runs in six appearances (24.1 innings) this season.

Against right-handed pitching, Olson is hitting .256, and he’s smacked 13 of his 17 homers in 2025 against righties. On top of that, he’s fared well against Stroman in his career, going 3-for-10 with a homer and a 1.000 OPS. 

He’s worth a look at home in this series finale. 

Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+850)

Boston Red Sox youngster Ceddanne Rafaela has homered four times over his last nine games while posting an insane .394/.412/.818 slash line.

On Sunday, he’ll take on the Chicago Cubs and righty Cade Horton, who has given up seven homers in 11 appearances (10 starts) this season while posting a 4.45 ERA.

Rafaela is up to 14 home runs in the 2025 season, and he’s been arguably the hottest hitter on a Boston team that is making a push for the top spot in the AL East this season. Rafaela has also crushed right-handed pitching, hitting .283 with eight home runs so far in 2025. 

These odds are too favorable to pass up for a player that has been red hot in July. 

Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+175)

Byron Buxton doesn’t have the most enticing odds to go deep, but I love his matchup against the Colorado Rockies and righty German Marquez at the home-run friendly Coors Field.

Buxton has 22 home runs in the 2025 season, and 16 of them have come against right-handed pitching. The Twins star is hitting a respectable .277/.337/.534 against righties in 2025.

Now, he’s taking on Marquez, who has struggled mightily with the long ball as of late. The veteran right-hander has given up eight home runs over his last seven starts, pushing him to 12 total homers allowed in the 2025 season. 

Marquez also has a dreadful 5.57 ERA and a bullpen backing him up that has a 4.96 ERA this season. Buxton is certainly worth a look to hit his 23rd homer of the season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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