Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Byron Buxton, Mike Yastrzemski)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run for the MLB action on Thursday, June 12.

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is a great prop target on Thursday. / Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Betting on home run props can be extremely tough to predict, but Wednesday was one of those days that reminds us why it’s so fun to sprinkle on these bets.

Jarren Duran and Aaron Judge both went deep on Wednesday night, hitting two of the three picks that I gave out in yesterday’s Daily Dinger. 

While it’s going to be tough to replicate that performance, especially with a smaller slate on Thursday, I do have three players that I’m looking to target on June 12.

One of those is Minnesota Twins star Byron Buxton, who has some impressive numbers in his career against Texas Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin, who he gets to face this afternoon.

Here’s a complete breakdown of each of the players that I’m betting on to leave the yard on June 12. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, June 12

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Mike Yastrzemski to Hit a Home Run (+285)
• Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+285)
• Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Mike Yastrzemski to Hit a Home Run (+285)

San Francisco Giants outfield Mike Yastrzemski has just five home runs in the 2025 season, but he has a great matchup on Thursday afternoon.

Yastrzemski is facing the Colorado Rockies and struggling starter Antonio Senzatela, who enters this matchup with a 6.68 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP in the 2025 season. Senzatela has given up 101 hits in 62.0 innings of work, and he’s allowed 11 homers in his 13 outings.

That sets up well for the Giants and Yastrzemski, especially since the veteran outfielder has crushed Senzatela in his career. Yastrzemski is hitting 5-for-12 (.417) with a pair of doubles against the Rockies righty. 

While he hasn’t taken him deep, I do think this is a good spot to back Yastrzemski to make it happen. Over the last week, he’s hitting .286 and his stats against righties (.260, four homers) have been much better in 2025. 

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes is up to 14 homers in the 2025 season, and he’s taking on a weak Chicago White Sox pitching staff on Thursday night.

Paredes has been red hot as of late, hitting .318 with a pair of homers over the last week of action. He’s also crushed right-handed pitching in 2025, posting a .266 batting average, .838 OPS and smacking 12 of his 14 homers.

That is a good sign ahead of tonight’s matchup with White Sox righty Davis Martin, who has given up 11 homers in 13 appearances in 2025. 

In his career against Martin, Paredes is hitting .400 (2-for-5). I think he’s worth a shot to go deep for the 15th time this season tonight. 

Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Now, for my favorite bet of the day.

Buxton is 2-for-6 in his career against Corbin, but the Twins star has taken him yard for both of those hits.

This season, Buxton has dominated against left-handed pitching, hitting .323 with a 1.002 OPS. While only two of his 11 homers have come against lefties, he’s displayed some solid power all season long with a .518 slugging percentage.

Corbin has pitched much better in 2025 than in previous seasons, putting together a 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP to this point in the season, but he’s still been prone to the long ball. Corbin has given up 10 homers in 11 outings, including three outings with multiple homers allowed.

Buxton is in a great spot to keep his homer streak against Corbin going on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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