Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Fernando Tatis Jr,. Jo Adell)

Fernando Tatis Jr. is a great bet to leave the yard on Thursday night.

San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is a great prop target on Thursday. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Thursday’s MLB action features a little bit of a shortened slate, but there are still plenty of home run props to consider betting on!

Every day here at SI Betting, we share our favorite home run picks. While home run props aren’t easy to cash, they are usually offered at some pretty favorable odds, so bettors can really cash in when they do hit.

Plus, who doesn’t love to root for a home run?

On Thursday, I’m eyeing a few picks, including one for San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr., who is taking on a terrible Colorado Rockies team. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each home run prop for the action on Sept. 11. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Sept. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+419)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+380)
• Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+419)

The Detroit Tigers offense has teed off on the New York Yankees so far in their early-week series, and I’m betting on that trend continuing on Thursday night.

Cam Schlittler is on the mound for New York, and while he’s pitched well at times in his rookie season, he has given up six homers in 10 starts and allowed four runs in 1.2 innings in his last outing.

That sets up well for some left-handed bats on the Tigers, including slugger Riley Greene. So far this season, Greene has homered 33 times with 30 of those dingers coming against right-handed pitching. 

Overall, he’s hitting .284 with a .911 OPS against righties in 2025. 

Greene hasn’t had a ton of home-run power as of late, hitting just one over his last 11 games, but he’s hitting .295 during that stretch. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pull one over the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium on Thursday. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+380)

San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. appears to be getting hot at the right time, as he’s hitting .280 with a pair of home runs and an .841 OPS over the last week of action.

Tatis is now up to 21 home runs in the 2025 season and he’s hit 17 of those against right-handed pitching.

On Thursday, Tatis has a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies and young righty McCade Brown, who has an ERA of 12.54 in three appearances this season. Brown actually faced the Padres on Sept. 6 and lasted just 1.2 innings after allowing five hits, six runs and one home run.

Tatis was 1-for-2 with a three-run homer off of Brown in that game. I love him to build on that on Thursday night. 

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell has homered 35 times in the 2025 season, and he’s looking to add to that total against the Seattle Mariners and righty Bryce Miller on Thursday night.

Miller has struggled in 2025, allowing 12 home runs in 14 appearances while posting a 5.53 ERA.

Adell is hitting just .234 against right-handed pitching, but 28 of his home runs have come against righties. Plus, he’s been on fire over the last two weeks, posting a slash line of .310/.341/.690 with five homers in 11 games.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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