Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Jackson Chourio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge)

Breaking down the best home run picks on the diamond as the MLB playoffs heat up on Wednesday, October 8.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is a good bet to go deep on Wednesday night. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

We have our final four-game slate of the season as the MLB playoffs continue with a quartet of elimination games.

There are a few interesting pitching matchups on Wednesday, giving us plenty of players to choose from for some home run picks.

At SI Betting, we share our favorite home run props for every day of the MLB season, and there are a few familiar faces worth betting on tonight.

Here’s a complete breakdown of these home run props for Wednesday, Oct. 8.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 8:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+481)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+372)
• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+481)

I picked Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI as one of my best bets for today in SI Betting’s Walk-Off Wagers column, and a lot of that analysis applies here:

The Milwaukee Brewers weren’t sure if they’d have their leadoff slugger for Game 2 of the NLDS due to a hamstring injury, but Jackson Chourio played and showed up in a big way. The outfielder went 2 for 4 with a three-run home run to help the Brewers to a 2-0 series lead.

Chourio went 3 for 3 in Game 1 with three RBI as well, so he’s swinging a hot back.

He should keep that up on Wednesday afternoon in Chicago against Jameson Taillon. He is 7 for 13 in his career against the righthander with a home run, two doubles, and four RBI. 

Going on the road should also help Chourio. He hit just .233 with a .707 OPS at home, which skyrocketed to .304 with a .831 OPS on the road.

On top of that, Chourio has hit five of his six batted balls with an exit velocity of 95.5 or higher. Also, Taillon allowed 24 home runs in 23 starts this season, including three in his three starts against the Brewers. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+372)

I also took Vladimir Guerrero OVER 1.5 HRR as one of my best bets today after he came through for us on Tuesday night:

The first baseman continued his postseason tear with a two-run home run in the top of the first in Game 3, and came around to score again after being intentionally walked in his next plate appearance.

Guerrero Jr. is now 8 for 13 with three home runs – one in each game – eight RBI, and five runs scored in this three-game series. The Yankees may try pitching around him the rest of the way, but even Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement are batting over .500 behind him in the order.

The Yankees turn to rookie Cam Schlittler in Game 4 after he helped them eliminate the Red Sox with a brilliant pitching performance in the Wild Card round. But that’s just more good news for the Blue Jays first baseman.

Guerrero Jr. has four hits in five at-bats against the rookie right-hander, so there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down in Game 4 at Yankee Stadium. 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)

We’re getting a low price of just +200 for Aaron Judge to go deep on Wednesday night, so feel free to skip over this one, but the Yankees slugger is red-hot right now and the Blue Jays are throwing a bullpen game.

Louis Varland will start the game for the Blue Jays, and Judge has hit three home runs in six at-bats against the righthander – including his longball on Tuesday night. All three of Judge’s hits on Tuesday night had exit velocities over 100 mph in the Game 3 win.

There’s really not too much more to add. It’s Judge. It’s a bullpen game. It’s Yankee Stadium. The only thing that might stop him is the rain.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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