Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Pete Crow-Armstrong, Brandon Lowe, More)

Breaking down the best players to bet on to hit a home run for the MLB action on Tuesday, July 8.

Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Every team in MLB is back in action on Tuesday night with the All-Star game approaching, and there’s a ton of ways to bet on the action.

As you may know, we share our favorite home run prop bets every day here at SI Betting, as it’s a fun way to get involved in the action and potentially cash a bet at longer odds.

On Monday, yours truly did just that, hitting a pick for Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez to go deep at +350 odds.

Can Tuesday yield a similar result?

There are a few matchups that I’m looking to target, including a pick for NL MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong to continue his hot month of July. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, July 8

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+380)
• Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+340)
• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+400)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+380)

This season, St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson has 11 home runs, but the majority of his damage has been done against right-handed pitching.

Burleson is hitting .308 with an .847 OPS against righties, smacking nine homers overall. On Tuesday, he has a great matchup against one of the most home-run prone starters in baseball, Washington’s Jake Irvin.

Through 18 starts, Irvin has allowed 20 home runs, and he’s given up at least one homer (10 overall) in each of his last six outings. That has pushed his ERA to 4.71 in the 2025 season. 

While St. Louis doesn’t have a surefire power hitter that will take Irvin deep, Burleson clearly has best splits against righties of their top home-run hitters. I think he’s a value bet at +380 tonight. 

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe has 19 home runs in the 2025 season, and he’s smacked four homers over the last two weeks while hitting an impressive .333.

The Rays star does most of his damage against right-handed pitching, as he’s hit 16 homers against righties while posting a .300/.352/.538 slash line.

Well, that sets up nicely for Tuesday’s meeting with the Detroit Tigers, as they’ll have veteran Jack Flaherty (4.84 ERA) on the mound in this one. Flaherty has given up 16 homers in 12 starts while leading the Tigers to a pedestrian 5-12 record in his outings.

It’s hard to find a better matchup for Lowe than the one he has tonight. 

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene has shown a ton of power in the first half of the 2025 season, hitting 22 home runs while posting an .876 OPS and a 143 OPS+.

He’s dominated right-handed pitching all season long, posting a .310 batting average with 21 of his 22 homers against them. Now, he’s taking on a righty that has struggled with the long ball in Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot.

Despite a 3.34 ERA, Pepiot has allowed 16 homers in 18 starts, and he’s also given up a homer to Greene in seven appearances against him. At +400, Greene is an absolute steal on Tuesday night. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Crow-Armstrong is having a great season for the Chicago Cubs, and I love the matchup against the Minnesota Twins for him on Tuesday night.

Minnesota has Simeon Woods Richardson on the mound, and he’s allowed nine home runs in 13 outings (12 starts) while posting a 4.41 ERA. 

Crow-Armstrong has dominated right-handed pitching in 2025, hitting .310 with 18 homers and an OPS of .971. Not only that, but he’s been red hot over the last week, hitting .400 with 10 hits and two home runs.

Crow-Armstrong actually has the third-best odds of any Cubs hitter to go deep on Tuesday, but I think the speedster is undervalued in this market. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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