Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton)

Breaking down the best home run prop bet picks for the MLB action on Sunday, Aug. 31.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani is a great prop target on Sunday. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The final day of August features a loaded 15-game slate of MLB action on Sunday, and it’s time to gear up for the home stretch of the regular season.

Starting Monday, exactly four weeks will be left in the 2025 regular season, meaning playoff spots are up for grabs in both the American League and National League over the coming weeks.

On Sunday, I’m looking to spice things up in the prop market – something we do here every day at SI Betting – as I’m eyeing a few home run props for the action.

With a ton of afternoon games, I’m targeting New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton and Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani against pitchers that they have thrived against in their careers. 

Here’s a breakdown of why these players are worth betting on to leave the yard on the final day of August baseball. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Sunday, Aug. 31

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+300)
• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+175)
• Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Stanton has been terrific in the 2025 season for New York since coming off the injured list, as he’s hitting .298 with 17 home runs in just 54 games (43 starts). At this pace, Stanton is homering more than once in every three games that he ends up in the starting lineup for the Yanks.

On Sunday, New York plays a series finale with the Chicago White Sox, who will send lefty Martin Perez to the mound. Perez has been good in the 2025 season, posting a 2.02 ERA in seven outings, but he has a shaky bullpen (4.18 ERA, 61 homer allowed) backing him up.

Plus, Stanton has crushed Perez in his career, hitting .286 (4-for-14) with a 1.188 OPS and a pair of homers. Against lefties this season, Stanton has homered three times in 42 at-bats, and he’s hitting .365 with eight homers over the last four weeks of action overall. 

He’s a solid bet at this price on Sunday. 

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+175)

Ohtani has a favorable matchup on Sunday as the Dodgers aim to extend their lead in the NL West in a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona has one of the worst bullpens in MLB this season, posting a 4.68 ERA with 59 home runs allowed. To make matters worse, Sunday’s starter – Brandon Pfaadt – has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season.

Pfaadt has an ERA of 5.24 and has allowed 22 home runs in 27 appearances this season. His advanced numbers are even more worrisome, as the D-Backs righty ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA and the second percentile in expected batting average against. 

Ohtani has some solid numbers against Pfaadt in his career (3-for-12, one homer, one double), and he’s crushed righties in 2025. The reigning NL MVP has hit 33 homers against righties this season and has a .407 on-base percentage against them.

He should thrive in this winnable matchup for L.A.. 

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+380)

San Francisco Giants third baseman Rafael Devers has been red hot as of late, hitting .421 with a pair of homers over the last week.

He’s now up to 27 home runs in the 2025 season, and he’s hit 19 of those against right-handed pitching while posting a .909 OPS.

On Sunday, Denver has a solid matchup against Baltimore Orioles righty Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 23 home runs in 25 starts this season.

I’ll trust the Giants slugger to stay hot on Sunday afternoon.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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