Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Riley Greene and More)

Breaking down the best home run prop bets for the MLB action on Monday, Aug. 18, including a pick for Shohei Ohtani.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani is a great prop target on Monday. / William Liang-Imagn Images

Betting on home run props is one of the most exciting ways to wager on Major League Baseball, and every day at SI Betting, we aim to share winners in that market.

Picking home run props can be tough, as there is a ton of luck involved, but usually there are a few pitching matchups to take advantage of on the slate.

Monday, Aug. 18 is no different, as I’m targeting Shohei Ohtani and Riley Greene, as they have both dominated the starting pitchers that they’re facing tonight. 

Can we cash in on some plus odds to kick off the week?

Here’s a complete breakdown of each of Monday’s home run props. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, Aug. 18

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+425)
• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+160)
• Kyle Manzardo to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene has struggled a bit since the All-Star break, hitting just .204 over his last 24 games, but I love this matchup for him on Monday night.

Greene is taking on the Houston Astros and starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti, who enters this start with a 6.38 ERA and two homers allowed in four outings in 2025. 

In his career against Arrighetti, Greene is 2-for-2 with two homers and four runs batted in. So, he’s homered every time he’s faced the Astros starter.

While he may not homer every time against Arrighetti, I do like him at this price on Monday, especially since Greene is hitting .289 with 26 of his 28 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. 

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+160)

Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani has homered 43 times in the 2025 season, making him one of the more reliable players to bet on in this market. I am backing Ohtani on Monday night against the Colorado Rockies, who have the worst team ERA in MLB.

Colorado is starting lefty Kyle Freeland on Monday, and he’s struggled in 2025, allowing 16 homers in 22 starts while posting a 5.18 ERA.

Ohtani has absolutely dominated against Freeland in his career, going 4-for-6 with two homers and a double – good for an OPS of 2.500. 

Not only that, but Ohtani has thrived against left-handed pitching this season, hitting .283 (better than he has hit against righties) with 10 homers and an OPS of .894.  

Kyle Manzardo to Hit a Home Run (+380)

The Cleveland Guardians are still in the mix for a playoff spot in the AL, and they’ll look to put up a big number against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen on Monday.

Gallen has allowed 24 home runs in 25 starts in the 2025 season while posting a 5.31 ERA. That makes him an easy pitcher to fade in this market, especially against some left-handed batters, who are hitting .283 against Gallen this season.

Enter: Kyle Manzardo.

The Guardians slugger has 21 home runs this season, 17 of which have come against right-handed pitching. He’s also homered three times over his last 10 games, posting a .276 batting average and a 1.057 OPS during that stretch.

At nearly 4/1 odds, he’s worth a look against Gallen on Monday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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