Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 4 (Bet Packers to Win Big on Sunday Night Football)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 28, 2025

The Packers are road favorites against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 4. / Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images

It seems like just yesterday we were anxiously awaiting the start of the NFL season, but here we are, just hours away from the start of the fourth NFL Sunday of the 2025 campaign.

If you haven't yet placed your bets for today's slate of games, I'm here to help you out. In this article, I'm going to break down three of my favorite bets for Sunday's action. Let's dive into them.

Best NFL Bets Today for Week 4

• Patriots -5.5 (-106) vs. Panthers via Ceasars
• Colts +160 vs. Rams via DraftKings
• Packers -6.5 (-115) vs. Cowboys via Caesars

Panthers vs. Patriots Prediction

Pick: Patriots -5.5 (-106)

The Patriots are in a great buy-low spot right now. This team is 1-2, but both their losses have been single-score games. What's more important is their underlying metrics. They rank 15th in EPA per play and 21st in Net Yards per Play (-0.4). While those numbers certainly don't look great, I don't think the Panthers are a competitive team after one strong win against the Falcons. They were still outgained in that performance and now enter Week 4 ranking 30th in Net Yards per Play (-1.4) and 22nd in EPA per Play.

Few people are as high on the Patriots as they were in the offseason, but after a slow start, now is the time to buy low on them. They're a step above the Panthers and will prove that on Sunday.

Colts vs. Rams Prediction

In this week's edition of the SI Upset Picks Roundtable, I broke down why I'm backing the Colts to take down the Rams as underdogs:

It's time for us football fans to start believing in the Colts. Sure, a three-game sample size is still small, but they've been so dominant offensively that it's hard to ignore at this point. Their metrics are right up there with the Ravens and Bills, in their own category compared to the rest of the NFL.

The Colts also rank second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.6, one spot above their Week 4 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams. In terms of advanced metrics, their slightly better offensively than the Rams, but Los Angeles has a small defensive advantage.

Any team with these close of numbers shouldn't have a spread north of a field goal. These odds are leftovers of offseason projections of both clubs. If you think you've seen enough of the Colts to consider them a legitimately good football team, there's a clear answer for which side you should back.

Pick: Colts +160

Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction

The Cowboys' secondary might be the worst I've ever seen at the NFL level. The Cowboys need to score on almost every drive if they want to cover a spread, let alone win outright. The Dallas defense ranks 31st in opponent dropback EPA, 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and last in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 9.4 yards per pass attempt, the most in the league by 0.8 yards. Now, they have to slow down one of the better quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love.

If the Cowboys allow Russel Wilson to throw for 450 yards and Caleb Williams to throw for 298 yards, just imagine what Love and the Packers offense can do. Not to mention, the Packers as a whole lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.7 while ranking third in opponent EPA per play and second in opponent success rate. Don't be swayed by their tough loss against the Browns last week. The Packers should steamroll the Cowboys in this game.

Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!