Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Chiefs vs. Chargers in NFL Week 1)

Breaking down the best bets, props and more for the Week 1 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy is a great prop target in Week 1. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A standalone game on a Friday night? Why not!

The NFL returns to San Paolo, Brazil in Week 1 of the 2025 season, as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Los Angeles Chargers and Justin Herbert.

The Chiefs are set as favorites in this matchup, but oddsmakers have set a pretty close spread between these AFC West rivals. Kansas City is coming off a loss in the  Super Bowl to the Philadelphia Eagles last season while the Chargers also had a disappointing finish to their campaign, losing in a turnover-laden matchup with the Houston Texans in the postseason.

Both teams have their eyes on the AFC West crown, but the Chiefs have owned the division for several years, going 35-5 against the AFC West with Mahomes as the starting quarterback.

Does that play into how we bet on Friday night’s matchup?

The SI Betting team has compiled our favorite plays for this Week 1 matchup, and I’ve curated a few props, a side and more to help you dive back into betting on the NFL. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-111) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – Iain MacMillan
• Travis Kelce 5+ Receptions (-173) – Peter Dewey
• Xavier Worthy OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan
• Omarion Hampton Touchdown (+150) – Iain MacMillan

Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-111) vs. Los Angeles Chargers – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week: 

People are writing off the Chiefs this season. Picking them to snap their nine-year streak of winning the AFC West and taking a huge step back. I know their Super Bowl loss is fresh in everyone's mind, but let's remember this team went 15-2 last year. Even as someone who was a detractor of theirs last season, underestimating the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid combination is a dangerous game to play.

Let's not crown the Chargers quite yet. They still have plenty of questions. They have a rookie at running back, one of their starting tackles, Rashawn Slater, is out for the season, and they're still trying to figure out who their No. 2 receiver is. The fact of the matter is, the Chiefs are the more experienced team and are confident in their identity. On a neutral field, I think the Chiefs deserve to be bigger favorites than they are. I'll lay the field goal.

Travis Kelce 5+ Receptions (-173) – Peter Dewey

Bettors are going to have to lay some juice with this prop, but I love Kelce at this number after he averaged 5.8 catches per game in the 2024 season.

In his NFL career, Kelce has 14 games with five or more catches against the Chargers, including each of his last eight matchups against L.A.

With Rashee Rice out, Kelce becomes the safety blanket for Patrick Mahomes over the middle of the field, and he should remain heavily involved in an offense that lacks an elite pass catcher (depending upon how you feel about Xavier Worthy) on the outside. 

Even in a “down” 2024 season, Kelce caught 97 passes on 133 targets. I’ll back him to have a strong season opener on Friday night. 

Xavier Worthy OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan shared in our best prop bets for this matchup why he’s backing Xavier Worthy to lead the way in this Kansas City passing game. 

Xavier Worthy turned things up late in the season. In the last three games of the regular season, he racked up 190 yards on 21 catches and two touchdowns. In the playoffs, he recorded 19 receptions for 287 yards and three touchdowns. He should be in a great spot to carry that momentum into this season, especially with Rashee Rice serving a suspension. I think he's in for a big season, starting with this Friday night showdown.

Omarion Hampton Touchdown (+150) – Iain MacMillan

A final pick from MacMillan, he loves Chargers rookie running back Omarion Hampton to find the end zone on Friday night: 

Najee Harris is expected to see the field on Friday night for the Los Angeles Chargers, but I'm not sold on him getting the bulk of the carries. The former Steelers' running back missed the majority of training camp and the preseason with an eye injury, while rookie running back Omarion Hampton got in work. The Chargers drafted Hampton in the first round for a reason, and I expect him to find the end zone in his first NFL appearance.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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