Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Dolphins vs. Steelers on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 15)

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers matchup on Monday night in Week 15.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a solid prop target on Monday. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Monday Night Football in Week 15 of the 2025 season features an interesting AFC matchup that has a ton of implications when it comes to the playoffs.

The Miami Dolphins and head coach Mike McDaniel are still alive to make the postseason, winning four games in a row and five of their last six to get to 6-7 this season. While Miami is a long shot in the AFC, it’s not impossible for the team to get in.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers are in first place in the AFC North, but they need a few more wins to hold off the Baltimore Ravens in the division. Aaron Rodgers turned in a vintage showing in Week 14 in an upset win over Baltimore, and he and the Steelers are favored in this primetime game.

Can Pittsburgh pick up a win and get one step closer to another winning season under Mike Tomlin?

All week long, the SI Betting team has been sharing our favorite picks for this matchup, and I’ve compiled some of our favorites all in one spot ahead of Monday’s action.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the best picks and predictions for the Dolphins vs. Steelers matchup. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Dolphins vs. Steelers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-115) vs. Miami Dolphins – Iain MacMillan
• Jaylen Waddle OVER 4.5 Receptions (-137) – Peter Dewey
• Aaron Rodgers UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-121) – Ryan Gilbert
• Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (-105) – Ryan Gilbert

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-115) vs. Miami Dolphins – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared in his Road to 272 column why he’s taking the Steelers to cover at home in this matchup: 

It's time to sell high on the Miami Dolphins. They may have strung together a win streak, but it's because they've been able to lean on the run game and not ask Tua Tagovailoa to do much. Now, against a playoff-caliber Steelers team, they won't be able to win by running the ball on almost 60% of their plays.

While it's a small sample size, there's something to be said for how bad the Dolphins have played in the Tagovailoa era when they have to go North to play in a road game late in a season. If the weather in Pittsburgh is cold on Monday night and the Dolphins have to look to their passing game, the Steelers may be in a favorable position to secure a much-needed win.

Jaylen Waddle OVER 4.5 Receptions (-137) – Peter Dewey

I love this matchup for Jaylen Waddle and the Dolphins, as the Steelers have allowed the most completions (312) and the fifth-most passing yards (3,172) in the NFL this season.

While Pittsburgh does rank 14th in the league in EPA/Pass, I think five receptions is a very reasonable number for Waddle to hit in this game.

The Dolphins receiver is having a strong 2025 season, reeling in 57 of his 86 targets for 812 yards and six scores in 13 games. He has at least five catches in eight of those matchups, and he should be the No. 1 target for Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday.

Since the Steelers are allowing so many completions this season, I think a receptions prop is a better play than taking Waddle’s yardage total in Week 15. 

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-121) – Ryan Gilbert

Aaron Rodgers has looked disinterested at times this season in Pittsburgh, and that’s shown in the box score. 

After throwing for 16 touchdowns through his first seven games with the Steelers, the veteran has just four touchdown passes in his last five games.

Rodgers hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game since Week 8 against the Packers. The cold should impact the Steelers’ gameplan against the Dolphins, leading to more rushing plays for Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell in the backfield.

Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (-105) – Ryan Gilbert

Jaylen Warren is tied for the Steelers’ team lead with six touchdowns this season, but half of them have come in the last three weeks. That’s right, the running back has scored in each of the last three contests heading into Monday Night Football against Miami.

Warren had just one touchdown in his first six games and now has five in his last six. His usage hasn’t changed a ton, but he’s making the most of his carries and is a threat in the passing game.

Look for Warren to extend his scoring streak to four games at home on Monday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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