Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 15 Picks for Every Game

The Road to 272 Bets continues as Iain MacMillan breaks down his best bet for all 16 NFL Week 15 games.

Best bet for all 16 NFL Week 15 games. / Burrow: Cooper Neill/Getty Images, Sanders: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images, Kyren: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images, Dart: Cooper Neill/Getty Images

BYE weeks are officially a thing of the past this season, and now we have just four weeks left of NFL action to watch and bet on before the playoffs begin. That's bad news for football fans, but might be good news for the Road to 272 Bets, which has had the worst season in its six-year existence.

With that being said, we don't stop the Road to 272 Bets just because we're down money. We remain committed to betting on all 272 regular-season games, so it's time to dive into my best bet for all 16 NFL Week 15 games.

Road to 272 Bets Week 14 Record

• 7-7 (-0.64 units)

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

• 88-119-1 (-30.85 units)

NFL Week 15 Best Bets for Every Game

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The Falcons' season is effectively over, and there are reports that the coaching staff has lost the locker room, which is bad news for their ability to win games in the final stretch of the season.

The Buccaneers' secondary has been bad this season and can be taken advantage of by a competent quarterback. Unfortunately, out of 42 quarterbacks who have thrown the ball 150+ times this season, Kirk Cousins ranks 40th in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected.

The Falcons' defense has already regressed significantly. The Buccaneers should have no trouble moving the ball against them, and with Tampa Bay needing this win on a short week on their home field, I'll lay the points with them.

Pick: Buccaneers -4.5 (-108) via DraftKings

Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction

I'm surprised to see the Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites in this spot. Not only have they already lost to the Chargers this season, and they have a losing record, but they have only five wins all season that have come by 5+ points. The betting market continues to evaluate the Chiefs as if they're the Chiefs of cold, but they're now on a four-game losing streak and have proven they are a different football team in 2025.

I wouldn't be shocked to see if the Chiefs win, but there's no way I can back this team to win by margin when facing a team that's currently in the playoff picture.

Pick: Chargers +4.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Jets vs. Jaguars Prediction

It's time to sell some stock in the Jacksonville Jaguars. They've been red-hot lately, but their underlying metrics show we shouldn't quite yet be treating them like one of the few elite teams in the NFL, for which double-digit spreads should be reserved. The Jaguars are ninth in overall DVOA and 15th in net yards per play.

The biggest issue is going to be whether or not Brady Cook of the Jets can lead them to scoring enough points to cover this spread, but as we see every weekend in the NFL, things can happen. If the Jets can find some momentum running the football, they have a chance to keep this final score within 12.5 points.

Pick: Jets +12.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction

The Bills' defense has cost them at times already this season, and I think there's a chance it costs them in their rematch with the Patriots. The Bills' defense ranks 22nd in defensive DVOA and 16th in opponent EPA. Now, they have to try to defend against Drake Maye, who has statistically been the best quarterback in the NFL. We've already seen this matchup go the Patriots' way once this season.

Both teams have the same Net Yards per Play this season at +0.7, so give me the Patriots as a slight home underdog to complete the series sweep.

Pick: Patriots +100 via FanDuel

Cardinals vs. Texans Prediction

There's a very strong argument to be made that the Texans have the best defense in the NFL, but for them to cover the 10-point spread, their offense is going to have to put up some points as well. Do we have enough faith in them to do that? Their offense is 24th in EPA per play, 29th in success rate, and 24th in DVOA. Covering a 10-point spread is hard enough, even if it's against a bad team like the Cardinals, but covering that team while having a bottom-10 offense is even harder.

Pick: Cardinals +10 (-115)

Ravens vs. Bengals Prediction

We have to stop evaluating the Ravens as if they're the same Baltimore team that was one of the best in the NFL a season ago. The Ravens now rank 15th in DVOA, not playing particularly well on either side of the ball. One of their biggest issues has been the subpar play by Lamar Jackson. He's just 15th this season in EPA+CPOE, which is two spots below Jaxson Dart and one below Marcus Mariota.

The Ravens just lost to the Bengals two weeks ago on their home field, and now they have to hit the road to take on a Bengals team that still has a chance at winning the division. I trust this Bengals team to at least keep this game tight with Joe Burrow at quarterback.

Pick: Bengals +2 (-108) via Caesars

Browns vs. Bears Prediction

Of course, last week I finally got off my "Bears are frauds" belief, and that was finally the week they didn't win or cover. It's time to revert to my original belief that this Bears team isn't good. The Bears still rank 20th in total DVOA and 24th in net yards per play.

The Browns are more feisty than you might think. Their defense continues to be a top-five unit, and Shedeur Sanders has played far better than people expected. He's coming off a performance where he threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns last week. He can do some damage against the Bears' defense, which ranks 26th in opponent success rate.

Pick: Browns +340 via FanDuel

Raiders vs. Eagles Prediction

With Geno Smith injured, we could see Kenny Pickett in at quarterback for this Week 14 game against the Eagles, which I think will do nothing but benefit the Raiders' offense, which has already looked more competent since Chip Kelly was dismissed.

Meanwhile, I can't yet trust the Eagles offense to score enough points to win a game convincingly, let alone cover a 12.5-point spread. As disastrous as this season has been for the Raiders, their defense remains competent, coming in around the middle of the pack in most metrics.

Until the Eagles prove they can win big, I'll back the ugly side and take the points with the Raiders.

Pick: Raiders +12.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Commanders vs. Giants Prediction

There's no need to overthink this game. This NFC East battle is a matchup between two of the worst defenses the NFL has to offer. The Commanders and Giants rank 30th and 31st in opponent EPA per play. 28th and 29th in opponent success rate, and 29th and 31st in opponent yards per play.

Don't let Jayden Daniels' injury scare you away from betting the OVER in this game. Marcus Mariota has been the more effective quarterback between the two players almost all season long. That, paired with Jaxson Dart, who's in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year, leads me to believe this will be a relatively high-scoring affair.

Pick: Commanders/Giants OVER 47.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Lions vs. Rams Prediction

The betting odds don't lie. The Rams are significant Super Bowl favorites for good reason, and they stand head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL. They rank first in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA. While the Lions are also arguably better than their record, it's going to be hard for them to make up for the plethora of injuries they're dealing with.

Both of their starting safeties are likely out for this game, along with their No. 1 cornerback and a few other defensive pieces. That's bad news for them when their job is to try to stop the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford. The Rams offense will rack up points, and their defense will do enough to keep the Rams in check. I'll lay the points with Los Angeles.

Pick: Rams -5.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Panthers vs. Saints Prediction

There's a case to be made that the Carolina Panthers are the most fraudulent team in the league. Don't let their record and their recent win against the Rams convince you otherwise. They still rank 26th in the league in overall DVOA and 25th in Net Yards per Play. The Saints rank 29th and 22nd in those two categories and have already beaten the Panthers once this season. Don't discount the Saints' defense, which ranks 11th in the league in opponent EPA per play and is fresh off a strong performance against the Buccaneers.

I'll take the 2.5 points with the Saints in New Orleans.

Pick: Saints +2.5 (-105) via Caesars

Packers vs. Broncos Prediction

The Broncos are due to regress. Their offense is average at best, and their defense hasn't been as good as it was early in the season. I also think we're going to find the Packers are poised to finish the season on a hot streak. They currently rank fifth in overall DVOA, fourth in net yards per play, and first in EPA per play. They're also just one of four teams, alongside the Rams, Seahawks, and Lions, who rank inside the top 10 in both success rate and opponent success rate.

The Packers will take care of business on the road in this one.

Pick: Packers -1.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Titans vs. 49ers Prediction

The Titans have shown some fight late in the season, and their offense has been coming along behind Cam Ward. Now, they get to face a 49ers team that has struggled defensively. The 49ers are 24th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate. They're also 29th in opponent rush success rate, which is great news for a Titans team that is coming off one of its best rushing games of the season against the Cleveland Browns.

The Titans won't win this game, but a 12.5-point spread against the 49ers is too many points, in my opinion. I'll take the points with Tennessee.

Pick: Titans +12.5 (-108) via FanDuel

Colts vs. Seahawks Prediction

The Colts are technically still alive for a playoff spot, but for all intents and purposes, their season is over. Their defense has regressed, and now they're not only down Daniel Jones, but Anthony Richardson is on the IR, and Riley Leonard is questionable for Week 15. That means they may have to start their practice squad quarterback, Brett Rypien. That's terrible news now that they take on a Seahawks team that leads the league in net yards per play and DVOA.

Not only that, but the Seahawks' defense ranks in the top three in opponent rush EPA, opponent rush success rate, and opponent yards per carry, which means they are well-equipped to shut down the Colts' rush attack, the only thing they have going for them. The Seahawks may win this one running away.

Pick: Seahawks -11.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Vikings vs. Cowboys Prediction

Now that the Cowboys' Cinderella run has come to an end, it's about time we get back to being realistic about this team. Their defense is one of the worst units in the entire NFL, and their offense won't be the same if George Pickens can't buy in, which, if last week is any indication, he won't. I foresee the Cowboys' imploding with their playoff hopes dead.

Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy is coming off the best start of his career, and the Vikings still have plenty of fight as they look toward returning to being a contender next season. The mixture of having a defense that can blitz and cause Dak Prescott issues with an offense that has the talent to attack a terrible defense is enough for me to take a shot on the Vikings pulling off the Sunday Night Football upset.

Pick: Vikings +260 via FanDuel

Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction

It's time to sell high on the Miami Dolphins. They may have strung together a win streak, but it's because they've been able to lean on the run game and not ask Tua Tagovailoa to do much. Now, against a playoff-caliber Steelers team, they won't be able to win by running the ball on almost 60% of their plays.

While it's a small sample size, there's something to be said for how bad the Dolphins have played in the Tagovailoa era when they have to go North to play in a road game late in a season. If the weather in Pittsburgh is cold on Monday night and the Dolphins have to look to their passing game, the Steelers may be in a favorable position to secure a much-needed win.

Pick: Steelers -3.5 (-102) via FanDuel

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