Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Falcons vs. Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 15)

Breaking down the best picks and predictions for the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup on Thursday night.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers an quarterback Baker Mayfield are favored on Thursday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in desperate need of a win on Thursday night in Week 15 when they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are eliminated from playoff contention after a blowout loss to Seattle in Week 14. 

The Falcons have been forced to turn to Kirk Cousins at quarterback with Michael Penix Jr. suffering a torn ACL, and they’ve lost back-to-back games to the New York Jets and Seahawks. 

So, it’s not a surprise that Atlanta is an underdog in this matchup, although bettors may not want to rush to back the Bucs.

Tampa Bay has lost four of its five games out of the bye week. And, it’s also been terrible at home this season, covering the spread in just one of six home games.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this primetime matchup, and I’ve compiled some of our favorites to put all together in one story.

Here’s a breakdown of each pick and the latest odds for this NFC South battle in Week 15. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Falcons vs. Buccaneers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-105) vs. Atlanta Falcons – Iain MacMillan
• Bijan Robinson UNDER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey
• Bucky Irving 16+ Rush Attempts (-137) – Peter Dewey
• Kyle Pitts OVER 5.5 Receptions (-110) -- Peter Dewey

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5 (-105) vs. Atlanta Falcons – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared in his Road to 272 column why he’s backing the Bucs to cover on Thursday: 

The Falcons' season is effectively over, and there are reports that the coaching staff has lost the locker room, which is bad news for their ability to win games in the final stretch of the season.

The Buccaneers' secondary has been bad this season and can be taken advantage of by a competent quarterback. Unfortunately, out of 42 quarterbacks who have thrown the ball 150+ times this season, Kirk Cousins ranks 40th in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected.

The Falcons' defense has already regressed significantly. The Buccaneers should have no trouble moving the ball against them, and with Tampa Bay needing this win on a short week on their home field, I'll lay the points with them.

Bijan Robinson UNDER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

This is a tough matchup for Bijan Robinson, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucs sell out to slow him down with Cousins under center for Atlanta: 

Robinson has put together a strong 2025 season despite all the issues plaguing the Atlanta offense, as he’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has already cleared the 1,000-yard mark (1,081 rushing yards) in 2025.

However, this is a tough matchup against a Tampa Bay team that is allowing just 4.2 yards per carry and ranks third in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season. The Bucs held Robinson to just 24 yards on the ground (on 12 carries) in Week 1. 

So, I think the UNDER may be worth a look in this market, especially since the Bucs’ pass defense is in the bottom half of the league. Robinson has 56 catches for 602 yards this season, so Atlanta may try to involve him more in the passing game on Thursday.

Robinson has 76 or more rushing yards in just six of his 13 games this season, so it’s not crazy to think that he’ll fall short of this number against such an elite run defense. 

Bucky Irving 16+ Rush Attempts (-137) – Peter Dewey

I’m buying Bucky Irving in his third game back from foot and shoulder injuries, as he’s played about half of the snaps for this Bucs team since returning: 

Since returning in Week 13, Irving has carried the ball 32 times (15 and 17 carries in his two games) for the Bucs while rushing for 116 yards and a score. He also has four receptions and a receiving touchdown during this two-game stretch.

Irving is getting a ton of looks even though he’s played right around 50 percent of the team’s snaps, and I think his touches could go up on the ground in this matchup.

Atlanta ranks 26th in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, and it’s allowed 4.5 yards per carry – tied for the ninth-most in the NFL. 

With the Bucs’ passing offense struggling in recent weeks, Irving could end up having a big game on the ground. He’s carried the ball at least 14 times in every game he’s played in this season, giving the second-year back a tremendous floor when it comes to this prop.

Kyle Pitts OVER 5.5 Receptions (-110) -- Peter Dewey

Over the last two weeks, Kyle Pitts (questionable for this matchup) has been targeted 18 times by Kirk Cousins, reeling in seven and six catches over those matchups for a combined 172 yards.

Pitts has essentially operated as the No. 1 receiver for Atlanta with Drake London out, and he should have a similar role in this Week 15 clash. This season, the Bucs have given up 70 receptions for 636 yards to opposing tight ends, making this a pretty solid matchup for the former top-five pick.

Even though he hasn’t become an elite tight end in the NFL, Pitts is having a strong 2025 season. He has 62 catches on 85 targets for 631 yards and a score. He hasn’t been a red-zone threat in 2025, but the young tight end has five games with six or more receptions.

In four games with London out this season (Week 8, Week 12, Week 13 and Week 14), Pitts has made nine, two, seven and six receptions. He should be heavily involved for this Atlanta offense on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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