Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (Bet Maple Leafs to Upset Lightning)

Iain MacMillan | Apr 9, 2025

The Maple Leafs are significant underdogs to the Lightning in Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

We had a hot Tuesday night betting on the NHL, going 3-1 with my picks, including an underdog winner on the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Let's keep the momentum going tonight as we approach the final week of the NHL season. Tonight, I have three bets locked in. One on an underdog, a total, and a player prop. Let's dive into them.

• NHL Season-to-Sate Record: 153-148-8 (-4.78 units)

Top NHL Picks Today

• Maple Leafs +158 vs. Lightning via Caesars
• Flames vs. Ducks UNDER 6.5 (-118) via DraftKings
• Zach Hyman UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105) via DraftKings

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction

I bet against the Maple Leafs last night, but this time around I'm going to bet on them instead. They're longer underdogs tonight at +158 and despite being on the second leg of a back-to-back, I think they matchup better against the Lightning than they do the Panthers.

On top of that, the Maple Leafs are starting the better of their two goals tonight in Anthony Stolarz. he sports a .922 ave percentage and is coming off a 27-save shutout against the Blue Jackets. They're worth a bet as +158 underdogs tonight.

Pick: Maple Leafs +158

Flames vs. Ducks Prediction

The Calgary Flames have been one of the worst shooting teams in the NHL this season, which leads me to be surprised the total is set at 6.5 against another low-scoring team in the Anaheim Ducks. The Flames are 30th in the league in shooting percentage since the All-Star break, scoring on just 8.33% of their shots on goal. They also haven't created many scoring opportunities, ranking third last in expected goals per 60 minutes.

I'll take the UNDER in this Pacific Division showdown.

Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-118)

Blue vs. Oilers Prop Bet

The St. Louis Blues continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the NHL since the All-Star Break, ranking fourth in expected goals against and fifth in shots on goal allowed per 60 minutes in that time frame. To try to take advantage of that, I'm going to take the UNDER on Zach Hyman's shot total of 2.5. He has only reached 3+ shots on goal twice in his last five games.

Pick: Zach Hyman UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!