Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (Bet Oilers to Upset Kings in Game 5)

Iain MacMillan | Apr 29, 2025

The Oilers are road underdogs in Los Angeles in Game 5 on Tuesday night. / Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

After a 2-1 night on Monday, the NHL Playoffs continue on Tuesday and so do my picks. We could see two series wrap up tonight as both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes have a chance to advance to the next round, currently holding a 3-1 series lead.

Let's dive into my top three bets for tonight's action.

Top NHL Picks Today

• Senators vs. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 (-105) via FanDuel
• Tomas Hertl OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) via DraftKings
• Oilers +124 vs. Kings via DraftKings

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

The Senators and Maple Leafs have both played strong hockey in their own respective ends of the ice this series. The Senators have an expected goals against per 60 minutes of 2.52 and the Maple Leafs are right behind them in that stat at 2.54. Those are the third and fourth best marks in the postseason so far with only the Jets and Panthers ranking better.

With the series on the line for the Senators, I expect the strong defensive play from both teams to continue tonight. I'll bet the UNDER 5.5 at -105.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-105)

Wild vs. Golden Knights Prop Bet

No team has allowed more shots on goal per 60 minutes in the first round of the playoffs than the Minnesota Wild, who have allowed an average of 31.93. That should set us up in a good spot to take a member of the Golden Knights to go over their shot total.

I'm going to target Tomas Hertl, who has had a great postseason so far, recording three goals and five points through the first four games. He has also recorded at least three shots on goal in three of their four games. I love this bet at plus-money.

Pick: Tomas Hertl OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Oilers vs. Kings Prediction

If you take a look at some of the advanced metrics, the Oilers have quietly been dominating the Kings during 5-on-5 play. The final boxscores may not show it, but the Oilers have an expected goal differential of +0.76 per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, which is the best mark amongst all playoff teams so far this round.

If the Oilers can get any level of consistent goaltending from Calvin Pickard, the Kings could be in trouble in a pivotal Game 5. I don't think Los Angeles deserves to be as big of a favorite as it is. I'll back the Oilers as 'dogs tonight.

Pick: Oilers +124

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!