Bet Logan Thompson to Win Vezina Trophy Before It's Too Late

Iain MacMillan | Feb 20, 2025

Logan Thompson is a great bet to win the Vezina Trophy as we return to NHL action. / Sergei Belski-Imagn Images

The NHL job has done a fantastic job replacing the All-Star game with the 4 Nations Face-Off, but it's time to get back to regular season action.

Before the NHL starts back up again, it's time to look at the futures market. For me, there's one specific award that I think we can attack from a betting perspective; the Vezina Trophy. Connor Hellebuyck is a massive favorite to be named the league's top goalie, but we shouldn't overlook Logan Thompson, who still has plenty of time to make a case to win the award.

Vezina Trophy Odds

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Connor Hellebuyck -5000
• Logan Thompson +2500
• Andrei Vasilevskiy +8000
• Mackenzie Blackwood +8000

Bet Logan Thompson to Win Vezina Trophy

I'm not going to claim Hellebuyck doesn't deserve to be a significant betting favorite to win the award for the third time in his career, but -5000 odds with 25+ games to go this season is a bit crazy. Those odds imply he has a 98.04% chance to win the award. Even if you think his chances of winning are 90% at this point of the season, 8.04% of value is still quite significant.

Thompson is the only other realistic option to win the award and despite the odds, the numbers for these two goalies are much closer than you might think. Let's take a look:

	Connor Hellebuyck	Logan Thompson
Goals against average	2.06	2.23
Save percentage	.925	.921
Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 min	0.645	0.866
Goals against average better than expected	0.65	0.87
Shutouts	6	2
Wins	34	24

The simple numbers, like goals against average, save percentage, wins, and shutouts, favor Hellebuyck but not by as wide a margin as you may think. His strongest arguments over Thompson are his wins and shutouts which have largely come from the fact he's had 12 more starts than the Capitals' goalie.

Where Thompson has the advantage over Hellebuyck is advanced metrics. His goals against average above expected and save percentage above expected both outrank the Jets' goalie. Unfortunately, award voters likely aren't looking at advanced metrics before casting their vote.

Even with that being the case, there's still 25+ games left in the NHL season and even the simple metrics are too close to already hand the trophy to Hellebuyck. Thompson is going to benefit from the Capitals' schedule the rest of the way. After the All-Star break, they have the fifth-easiest schedule based on opponent win percentage.

Hellebuyck certainly deserves to be a big favorite and a bet on Thompson is likely to lose, but I firmly believe the odds aren't set as they should be. If you want a long-shot bet that has some expected value, Thompson at 25-1 to win the Vezina is worth a look.

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