SI

Bet the Ravens to Make the Playoffs Before Their Odds Drop

Brian Giuffra

The Ravens have plus-money odds to make the playoffs, and Lamar Jackson (left) and Derrick Henry (right) should lead a strong Ravens turnaround.
The Ravens have plus-money odds to make the playoffs, and Lamar Jackson (left) and Derrick Henry (right) should lead a strong Ravens turnaround. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images
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SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan bet the Ravens to win the Super Bowl in preseason at +700 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. I didn’t like the bet then, and feel justified in that assertion with Baltimore sitting at 1-5. 

However, betting on them to make the playoffs right now makes sense, and both me and Mac are on board. 

The Ravens are +106 at FanDuel Sportsbook to make the playoffs right now and I don’t think they’ll be plus-money for long. They host the Bears this week coming off a bye and with Lamar Jackson expected to return. 

While the Bears are 4-2, their defense is giving up the most yards per play in the NFL (6.2) and the second-most rush yards per play (5.3). That’s bad news against a rested and desperate Ravens team. Baltimore is currently -6.5 (-114) at FD.

Assuming they win that game, they then face the Dolphins (terrible), Vikings (getable), Browns (stink) and the Jets (dumpster fire). Just like that, they could be above .500 at 6-5.

They finish the season with two games against Cincinnati, two against Pittsburgh and games against the Patriots and Packers. They should be betting favorites in four of those games. If they go 4-2 down the stretch, they’re 10-7 and likely in. They could even win the AFC North with that record, which Mac is betting them to do at +135 odds at FD.

A lot of this, of course, comes down to the health of Lamar Jackson. They can’t afford him to miss even one of their last 11 games. In his career, he’s never played fewer than 12 games. I trust that to play out this season. 

The Ravens defense has been terrible this year, ranking last in points per game allowed and 30th in yards per game allowed. Last year, they were top 10 in both categories. I’m not saying they become elite overnight, but a regression to the mean feels likely. Especially with their season on the line. 

The AFC is watered down this year and the AFC North seems rife for the taking after the Steelers lost to the Bengals. As for the Wild Card spots, the Jaguars and Chargers currently hold the last two spots at 4-3. Who do you trust more, Baltimore or those teams?

The Chiefs are 4-3, the Broncos are 5-2, the Bills are 4-2 and the Patriots are 5-2. Assuming two of those four win their division and the other two lock up a Wild Card spot, which seems likely, that leaves another Wild Card for the Ravens. Or they could win the division to make it. 

I trust Baltimore more than the Chargers, Jaguars, Steelers or Bengals (3-4). 

If you want to bet Baltimore to win the AFC North, the odds are more favorable. I’m going with making the playoffs because it gives me two options. I absolutely see a path to either winning.

With the latest FanDuel promo code new-user offer, you can place a $5 wager and win $300 in bonus bets. Create your new FanDuel account today to lock in this impressive welcome offer from one of the top sportsbooks in the nation.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Brian Giuffra
BRIAN GIUFFRA

Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.

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