Betting Vegas: Public vs Sharps for Falcons-Cardinals, Money on Ravens vs Patriots

Gilberto Manzano | 2 Hours Ago

Bettors are backing the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson against the Patriots in Week 16. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Lamar Jackson has struggled this season, but that hasn’t stopped NFL bettors from supporting him and the Ravens for Sunday night’s showdown against Drake Maye and the Patriots. 

I was genuinely curious whether the public would fade the Ravens against an 11-win team with an MVP candidate at quarterback. Jackson has two career MVPs, but for this year, he hasn’t even come close to the level of play that Maye has produced in his second season. Despite Baltimore’s offensive struggles, bettors haven’t hesitated to lay the three points for the home team.

“They still have love for Lamar Jackson,” says Mike Palm, the vice president of operations at the Circa in Las Vegas. “They still do. I guess they played their first really good game last week where they put a whole game together [in the 24–0 victory over the Bengals]. They just haven’t done that because the offense has struggled, but there were some signs of life last week.”

Palm said Ravens vs. Patriots and Lions (-7) vs. Steelers have seen the most action among the NFL Week 16 matchups.

“I think if you like the Ravens, you lay it now,” Palm says. “If this game ever gets to 3.5 it won’t last long. I don’t think the line will move. I think it would go right back to three because the pros would take the 3.5.”

I was surprised to learn that bettors weren’t interested in laying the three points for the Chiefs, who are facing the lowly Titans on the road. Even with Patrick Mahomes sidelined, backup Gardner Minshew II has enough around him to get by one of the worst teams in the NFL.

“We’ve got very little action on that game so far,” Palm says. “It’s sitting at three and not a lot of interest.”

Surprisingly, there’s been plenty of love for the Saints, who are a 4.5-point home favorites against the Jets. Only 10 entries remain for the Circa’s popular survivor contest, which started with 18,718 contestants, and all of them still have the Saints available. 

Technically, every entry left is worth $1,871,800. A lot of money will be riding on coach Kellen Moore’s surging team, which beat Tampa Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks. 

With more insight from Palm, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 16. 

Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 16

This might be hard to believe, but the sharps are riding with the Cardinals, while the team they’re hosting, the Falcons, are being backed by the public. 

Atlanta, which is laying three points, is coming off a comeback victory against Tampa Bay last Thursday night. Arizona has lost six consecutive games and dropped its last two by a combined 48 points. 

“We’re seeing some pro money on the Cardinals if you can believe that,” Palm says. 

Odds Movement NFL Week 16

The Rams had a rough Wednesday ahead of the massive Thursday Night Football clash with the Seahawks. 

First, star receiver Puka Nacua took some controversial shots aimed at NFL officials. That was followed by the Rams listing receiver Davante Adams as doubtful for the game. Then the team’s flight to Seattle was delayed due to equipment issues with the plane.

Perhaps all of Wednesday's drama shifted the line, because the Rams quickly went from a 1.5-point road favorite to now being spotted 1.5 points. 

“I don’t know,” says Palm about the sudden odds movement. “To me, it’s gotta be Adams’s injury, because I still have a lot of trepidation about how Sam Darnold is going to perform in a big game in the spotlight. He cost them the last time they played in L.A. with the four interceptions.”

The Packers didn’t have as much drama as the Rams, but they, too, went from 1.5-point road favorites to being spotted 1.5 points for Saturday night’s battle against the Bears. 

Biggest Liability NFL Week 16 

The money has poured in favor of the Bills despite them laying a whopping 10.5 points in Cleveland. 

“We’re just going to keep taking Buffalo money,” Palm says. “Hopefully, the Browns can cover this number, but they looked so bad again last week in Chicago.”

Manzano’s NFL Week 16 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the trend: Chiefs (-3) at Titans

I think the Chiefs will show pride after their dreadful loss against the Chargers, which included the team being eliminated from playoff contention and the season-ending knee injury to Mahomes. 

Let’s not forget that these are still the Titans. 

Enticing Bet: Giants (+3) vs. Vikings

Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy could struggle at an outdoor road venue against a talented defensive front. Expect the Giants to force him into killer mistakes. 

Moneyline Dog: Chargers (+110) at Cowboys

I don’t understand how the Cowboys are the favorites. Even with a bad offense, the Chargers still have a physical, well-coached defense good enough to shut down Dak Prescott & Co. 

SuperDog: Colts (+6.5) vs. 49ers

I really like the number here. The Colts play better at home and Philip Rivers had a decent outing last week in Seattle. 

Not So Risky: Broncos (-3) vs. Jaguars

The Broncos’ defense will frustrate Trevor Lawrence to end his stellar play the past three weeks, which included games against the Titans and Jets.  

Stay Away: Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders

I can’t lay this many points for a divisional matchup. Washington has played well at times with backup Marcus Mariota. 

Parlay: Rams (+1.5) at Seahawks; Bears (-1.5) vs. Packers; Steelers (+7) at Lions

I’m fading Darnold here in a big spot. The Bears’ rushing attack will have a dominant outing vs. Green Bay. And the Steelers will keep it close against the Lions’ explosive offense, but I’m not too confident about it. 

Favorite Fave: Bills (-10.5) at Browns

Don’t worry about the high number. The Browns have checked out and are eager to head into the offseason. 

Best Over/Under Total: Rams-Seahawks (over 42.5, -112) 

This number is way too low for a game that includes the Rams’ high-scoring offense. Matthew Stafford will score points against this dominant Seahawks defense. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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