Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for ALCS Game 5

Bryce Miller and the Mariners look to end their skid in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Blue Jays.

Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryce Miller looks to give his team a 3-2 lead in the ALCs. / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays got a vintage performance from Max Scherzer on Thursday night to even up the ALCS at two games a piece.

We have a pitching rematch from Game 1 in Game 5 tonight, with Kevin Gausman facing off against Bryce Miller in Seattle.

Which team will take the 3-2 series lead?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Mariners on Friday night.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Blue Jays -1.5 (+152)
• Mariners +1.5 (-187)

Moneyline

• Blue Jays -115
• Mariners -105

Total

• 7 (Over -117/Under -103)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.38 ERA)
• Mariners: Luis Castillo (1-0, 2.61 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 16
• Time: 6:08 p.m. ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Mariners record: 90-72 (2-2)
• Blue Jays record: 87-75 (2-2)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Bryce Miller OVER 11.5 Outs (-153)

I broke down this pick in SI Betting’s daily best bets column, Walk-Off Wagers:

Mariners starter Bryce Miller took a step back this season. After posting a 2.98 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 2024, the righthander saw his ERA nearly double to 5.68 with a 1.40 WHIP this year.

However, despite Miller’s struggles, he was always able to go deep into games for Seattle.

Miller has recorded at least 12 outs in every single start of his this season. That includes Game 1 of the ALCS when he threw six innings of two-hit ball on just three days rest. The righthander also completed five innings against the Blue Jays back in May.

After the Mariners bullpen was tasked with throwing 6.2 innings on Thursday night, Miller should continue to have a bit of a longer leash in Game 5. There is an off day on Saturday, which helps Seattle, but Miller should still be able to pitch at least four innings at home on Friday night.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

The Mariners have their backs against the wall a little bit in Game 5. They’ll still be alive if they lose, but heading into Toronto down 3-2 after three straight losses will certainly be dubious.

It’s a three-game series now, and Seattle is still at home as it looks to pull within one win of the World Series.

While playing at home hasn’t mattered much in this series, a bigger look at this overall season shows the disparity. The Mariners went 51-30 at home in the regular season while the Blue Jays went 40-41. 

The Blue Jays shouldn’t be favored in this game, even if it’s only slightly.

Pick: Mariners (-105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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