Blue Jays vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 18

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Toronto Blue Jays-Pittsburgh Pirates matchup on Aug. 18.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman is a solid prop target on Monday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

NL Cy Young candidate Paul Skenes is on the mound on Monday night for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and that’s led to some of the best betting sites setting the Pirates as favorites against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto has the best record in the American League and a five-game cushion in the AL East heading into this matchup.

Still, the threat of Skenes, who has a 2.13 ERA this season, at least gives the last-place Pirates a fighting chance in this matchup. 

Toronto will counter with veteran Kevin Gausman, who has turned things around over his last eight starts, lowering his ERA to 3.79 this season. Can he lead the Jays to a road win tonight?

Let’s break down the odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Monday’s action. 

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Blue Jays -1.5 (+160)
• Pirates +1.5 (-197)

Moneyline

• Blue Jays: -108
• Pirates: -112

Total

• 7 (Over -111/Under -109)

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Toronto: Kevin Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (7-9, 2.13 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 18
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, SNET
• Blue Jays record: 73-52
• Pirates record: 52-73

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kevin Gausman OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-160)

This is a pretty simple prop play for Gausman on Monday night, as he’s thrown at least six innings (18 outs) in five straight starts, posting a 2.45 ERA in those outings.

Pittsburgh is one of the worst offenses in MLB, ranking dead last in runs scored and OPS. The Pirates are also just 28th in batting average, so I don’t expect them to provide much resistance against Gausman on Monday.

Overall, this season, Gausman has recorded 18 or more outs 14 times in 24 starts. He’s worth a look in a favorable matchup.  

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m taking the UNDER in the Toronto-Pittsburgh showdown on Monday: 

Paul Skenes is on the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, Aug. 18, and he’ll look to rebound from a rough outing against the Brewers his last time out.

Skenes allowed four runs in four innings in that matchup, just the third time in 25 starts that he allowed more than three earned runs in 2025. 

That leads me to tonight’s bet, as I’m leaning with the UNDER in this matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto is one of the best OVER teams in MLB this season, hitting it at a 57.5 percent clip, but the Pirates are one of the best UNDER teams, hitting it at a 57.0 percent clip. 

Pittsburgh ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored in 2025, and if there is ever a time to expect the Pirates’ pitching staff to keep an opponent in check, it’s when Skenes is on the mound.

So far this season, Pittsburgh has combined for seven or fewer runs in 16 of Skenes’ 25 outings.

On the Blue Jays side, Kevin Gausman (3.79 ERA) has pitched really well as of late, posting a 2.96 ERA in eight starts since July 1. He should keep this struggling Pirates offense in check on Monday night. 

Pick: UNDER 7 (-109 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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