BMW Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Aberg and Justin Thomas

Brian Giuffra | Aug 13, 2025

Ludvig Aberg (left), Patrick Cantlay (center) and Justin Thomas (right) are among the betting picks for the BMW Championship. / Thomas: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesAberg: Shanna Lockwood/Augusta National/Getty ImagesCantlay: Jared C. Tilton/Getty ImagesBackground: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

The FedExCup Playoffs are down to 49 players at the BMW Championship (Sepp Straka withdrew for personal reasons). That makes betting on this event all the more unique. Odds shorten and markets minimize when only the best of the best remain. Now it’s our job to position you for betting success with a condensed field. 

The SI Golf betting panel is comprised of SI golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided content director Cody Williams,and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

The BMW Championship is at Caves Valley this week. The course underwent considerable renovations since it hosted this event in 2021. Patrick Cantlay won that in a playoff over Bryson DeChambeau after tying at 27-under in regulation. The fairways are tighter now and there's longer rough and firmer greens. The course also went from a par 72 to par 70. Scoring should be considerably tougher than ‘21. 

The season-ending Tour Championship is next week. Only the Top 30 in the playoff standings after the BMW advance to East Lake. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are prohibitive betting favorites to win the BMW, but we’re going in a different direction with our picks. Let’s get into them, with breakdowns below the graphic. 

BMW Championship betting picks / Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Justin Thomas +2500 (BetMGM)

Justin Thomas hasn’t been in excellent form of late, but he has been consistent, and last week’s performance where we gained strokes in all four major areas is promising coming into this week. Most importantly, he’s fourth on the PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage (25.49%), which could prove pivotal critical here.

Brian Kirschner:  Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings) 

Cantlay has gone back to back at the BMW before. Why can’t he go back to back at Caves Valley? Cantlay’s struggles this season have been highly overrated. Although he hasn't been as consistent as his past three seasons, he is still playing well. His approach numbers have been excellent all season and they were strong last week as he gained almost 8 strokes on approach. He had one of the best putting performances in the history of the tour here last time and I see no reason why it can’t happen again. 

John Schwarb: Cameron Young +3000 (DraftKings)

If you subscribe to the notion that getting win No. 1 would open the floodgates for Cam Young, why not take him to win again two weeks after the Wyndham? Another win would also clinch the New Yorker’s spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team at Bethpage. 

Cody Williams: Ludvig Åberg +2500 (FanDuel)

Ludvig hasn’t quite been the tour de force we saw last year, but the elite form of the young Swede is trending heavily in the right direction with three straight Top 25 finishes, including two inside the Top 10. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball with the requisite distance to succeed, but also has high-end accuracy in relation to his peers distance-wise. But what stands out is that he’s 11th in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds to go with that while being 10th in putting on bentgrass greens for his last 36 rounds. It’s an ideal fit and, at a not-dissimilar BMW setup last year, he was T2. Let’s do one better this week. 

Brian Giuffra: Ludvig Åberg +2500 (FanDuel) 

Aberg has two top 10s in his last three events, which has flown a bit under the radar. Oddsmakers are still high on him this week and with just cause. He’s 10th on the PGA Tour in SG: Off the Tee, which is a key metric this week, and has gained on approach in each of his last seven events. A renovation made this course firmer and faster than before and Aberg thrives in those situations. 

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Kurt Kitayama +6000 (FanDuel)

Kurt Kitayama has quietly posted a top 15 finish in four of his last five starts, including a win at the 3M Open and a T9 finish at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. He now enters this week fourth in the field in true strokes-gained from tee to green over the past three months.

Brian Kirschner: Sam Burns +3500 (FanDuel) 

Okay, 35/1 isn't a “longshot” but it’s a 49-man field and I am not betting anyone over 60/1 so I cannot lie to anyone. It’s fair to say that his game has dipped since leading the U.S. Open, but this is a perfect Sam Burns golf course. Elite driver and bentgrass putter. Burns is one of the few people in this field that finished great here in 2021 with an eighth place. Let’s add one more wrinkle to the Ryder Cup with a Sam Burns win.

John Schwarb: Lucas Glover +12500 (FanDuel)

Lucas Glover is on the cutoff line at 30th in points, trying to make the Tour Championship for the second time in three years. He was having a decent showing in Memphis before a final-round 73 left him T44. Winning here would be a tall order, but this price seems really high for the six-time winner.

Cody Williams: Rickie Fowler +6000 (FanDuel)

In a 49-player field, why not take a swing on someone who had the golf swing working just last week and, frankly, has something to prove in the way Rickie Fowler does? Fowler finished T6 in Memphis while gaining 2.10 strokes per round ball-striking. It was the short game that resulted in a slow bleed for the former star on a comeback hunt. Though I do worry that he might not be the best driving fit, I’ll take the obvious signs that something is clicking at 60-1 when few golfers have those long of odds in this field. 

Brian Giuffra: Hideki Matsuyama +5000 (FanDuel) 

Matsuyama has quietly fixed whatever the hell was going on at the midpoint of the season and returned to playing outstanding golf, especially on approach. He’s gained over three strokes per round on approach combined in his last two events and gained with the putter too. He’s a guy who can go low all four rounds, which is critical to winning here. I expect him in contention come Sunday. 

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Harry Hall +4000 (DraftKings)

Harry Hall enters this week ranking second on the PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage at 25.78%, behind only Scottie Scheffler. On top of that, he’s third on Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 68.17. He’s a prime candidate to get off to an early lead.

Brian Kirschner: Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 (DraftKings) 

I will gladly buy back on Fitz after one bad week. Fitz has been playing some of the best golf of anyone this summer and came back down to earth a bit last week with a T32 finish, his worst result since the U.S. Open. Fitz is still an elite putter and can pop OTT. He has a great course fit and has played well at this event in the past. I think he can go low for a round and finish FRL.

John Schwarb: Russell Henley +3000 (DraftKings)

Henley opened and closed with 66s last week at TPC Southwind, but a 70 and 71 in the middle kept him from contending. As he closes in on an automatic spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team, I expect the Georgia Bulldog to keep his edge and maybe he jumps out fast this week.

Cody Williams: Viktor Hovland +3300 (BetMGM)

I’ve finally reached Viktor Hovland nirvana and I see it clearly now. His elite rounds are going to be up there with the best — but he’s going to be volatile day-to-day, much less week to week. However, he’s still playing like an elite iron player right now, has good history on Fazio designs, and is sixth-best in the field in Proximity from 200+ yards out. The signs are too good to not have some exposure, so let’s play into his current volatility with a first-round leader play. 

Brian Giuffra: Sam Burns +3000 (FanDuel) 

When Burns finished in eighth place here in 2021, he opened with a 64. On the week, he gained over 1 stroke putting per round and nearly a full stroke off the tee. He brings a similar game into this year’s event, gaining 1.55 putts per round at the St. Jude and gaining strokes off the tee in six of his last eight events. His short game has been a bit sporadic this year, but I could see him getting off to another hot start at a course that suits his game. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Patrick Cantlay Top 5 +400 (DraftKings)

Patrick Cantlay, fresh off a T9 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, returns to a course he won at in 2021. Not only did he finish T9 last week, but he ranked third in the field in strokes gained approach at +1.81 per round. If he can carry that level of iron play into this week, he’s going to be in contention on the weekend.

Brian Kirschner: Cam Young Top 10 +225 (DraftKings) 

The guy is playing some really serious golf right now and I don’t see it stopping anything soon. This is a perfect spot with his elite length off the tee and serious prowess with the flatstick right now. I am fine with the spot and the odds here on a top 10. 

John Schwarb: Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 +300 (DraftKings)

Call this a sentimental play for the Englishman. He continued to attract fans with how he handled heartbreak at the FedEx St. Jude and he’s also in wonderful form. There’s no reason he won’t be in the mix again at Caves Valley. Not putting any win money on him, but I’ll take him for a high finish.

Cody Williams: Kurt Kitayama Top 10 +250 (BetMGM)

The only drawback with Kurt Kitayama right now is the same bugaboo that often plagues him: the putter. But the ball-striking is so elite, it almost hasn’t mattered lately, including his 3M Open victory and a Top 10 last week in Memphis. He’s a sneaky long driver, third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and the best in the field at making birdie or better. As long as the putter isn’t an active harm to Kitayama this week, he’s striking the ball too well to not end up in the top-fifth of the field. 

Brian Giuffra: Xander Schauffele Top USA +1200 (FanDuel) 

I like Xander to win outright this week, but we only get two darts there so I’m throwing something at him here. His tee-to-green game has been outstanding the last few weeks and his putter is finally coming around. That will be the key to this bet hitting. It’s traditionally been a strength so I’ll back X to find it ahead of the Ryder Cup. As I mentioned last week, I’m also betting my outright (Ludvig Åberg) to finish Top 20 too. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan: -22
• Brian Kirschner: -17
• John Schwarb: -16
• Cody Williams: -21
• Brian Giuffra: -19

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