Canadian Open Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Shane Lowry, Taylor Pendrith and Sam Burns

SI Golf staff | Jun 4, 2025

Shane Lowry (left), Taylor Pendrith (center) and Sam Burns (right) are among the betting picks for the Canadian Open. / Taylor Pendrith: Jared C. Tilton/Getty ImagesShane Lowry: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesSam Burns: David Berding/Getty Images

There’s been some change on the SI Golf betting panel. Matt Vincenzi, an awesome part of the SI Golf team, was hired by LIV and therefore can no longer give picks here. We’re happy for Matt and know he’s going to crush it. But now it’s on us to hit some outrights! 

The betting panel is comprised of SI Golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

On the eve of the U.S. Open, we turn our attention north for another national championship, the Canadian Open, and a field headlined by Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg. TPC Toronto is a longer course where distance is a premium. But rather than wager on either of the top two betting favorites, we’re looking a bit lower on the oddsboard. 

To date, Kirschner is leading the way, up over 100 units. Williams is also in the positive, while Schwarb, MacMillan and Giuffra are still looking for their first outrights. 

Let’s get into our bets for this week’s event with explanations on the picks below the graphic. 

Canadian Open Betting Picks / Sports Illustrate

Outright 

Iain MacMillan: Taylor Pendrith +2800 (DraftKings)

No golfer in the field has played TPC Toronto more than Taylor Pendrith, including finishing runner-up here at a PGA Tour Americas event in 2019. The Canadian is a perfect stylistic fit for this course with his strong play off the tee giving him an advantage at a long course like this. Finally, he’s coming into this event in fantastic form, finishing T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 at the Memorial Tournament, where he finished second in the field in strokes-gained tee to green. He gets a big check mark in everything we want in an outright winner.

John Schwarb: Shane Lowry +2200 (FanDuel)

I agree with what Iain wrote in his Monday betting preview—Shane Lowry is playing too well not to have won yet this season. Sitting 12th in season points and 12th in the world, Lowry has four top-eight finishes, including a pair of runner-ups at Pebble Beach and Truist, both signature events. His major efforts haven’t been good (T42 Masters, MC PGA) and his sometimes-balky putter would give me pause for Oakmont’s fiery greens, but this week he gets his fourth PGA Tour win in a third different country. 

Brian Kirschner: Taylor Pendrith +2800 (DraftKings)

A bit of a straightforward selection this week as a Canadian looks to win two out of the last three versions of this event. Surely distance is going to be an advantage this week as the course is a 7,400 par 70, and Pendrith has plenty of distance OTT. He is also coming off leading the field in approach at Memorial, which is an extremely impressive feat. I trust that he can find his putter and contend this week. 

Cody Williams: Kurt Kitayama +5500 (FanDuel)

Backing Kurt Kitayama has rarely worked out well for me, but hey, why not bang our heads against the wall and hope we might break through sometime? He fits the profile I’m looking for this week with Top 10 driving distance in this field and, though he’s been erratic, a strong profile on approach play. The short game can be a disaster, but in a field where there is Rory McIlroy and then quite a lot of high-variance players, I’ll take a flier on Kitayama to get it done this week.

Brian Giuffra: Sam Burns +3000 (DraftKings) 

Burns has quietly put together an outstanding run since April, clocking four Top 20s in his last six events, including a T12 at Memorial last week. He remains one of the longest drivers on Tour, which is important on this track, and is first in SG: Putting. He was losing a lot of strokes on approach and around the green earlier in the season, but gained in both last week. The stats overall are improving. With a T10 here last year and trending upward with his game currently, I like him to get a win and start his campaign for a spot on the Ryder Cup team. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Rasmus Hojgaard +7500 (FanDuel)

Rasmus Hojgaard’s distance off the tee makes him an intriguing longshot this week. He hasn’t had his best start since a hot start to the season where he finished T22 at Pebble Beach and T12 at the Phoenix Open, but he has shown flashes of good golf, including a T23 at the Truist Championship, which was an elevated event. If he brings his best stuff, he’s going to be a great course fit at TPC Toronto.

John Schwarb: Erik van Rooyen +10000 (FanDuel)

Van Rooyen started this week with a six-shot romp in 36-hole U.S. Open qualifying in Columbus, against a field with plenty of Tour pros. He’s had a “meh” season at 66th in points with just one top-five finish, a runner-up at the Byron Nelson, but this is a hot-hand longshot play at an event that does not have a fully loaded field of stars.

Brian Kirschner: Erik van Rooyen +10000 (FanDuel)

EVR is playing some exceptional golf at the moment. If Scottie wasn't born in Dallas, he would already be a winner this season with this runner-up finish at the CJ Cup, where he gained almost 15 strokes to the field. TPC Craig Ranch is another long TPC design that rewards long iron play and putting. Van Rooyan also just blew out the field at a U.S. Open Qualifier, winning by six strokes. Given his place in the FedEx Cup standings, I know he is motivated to work towards East Lake, and winning this week would be a big step. 

Cody Williams: Steven Fisk +12000 (FanDuel)

Another entry for team no-putt this week, he’s fourth in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds while also ranking inside the Top 30 in driving distance over that same span. The putter is truly a disaster, losing more than 0.5 strokes per round over the last 16 rounds, but Fisk has put together some nice finishes sporadically of late, including a T12 at Myrtle Beach. Aside from Rory, this field isn’t all that different from that one, especially in the middle, so I’m going to bet on the ball-striking and hope for the best.

Brian Giuffra: Matti Schmid +8000 (Bet365)

Schmid’s game is perfectly suited for a long course like this. He’s 15th on Tour in driving distance, first in proximity on approach from 175-200 yards and 28th in proximity from 150-175 yards. That’s the distance a lot of shots will be hit this week. He’s also a solid putter who makes the 10th most birdies on average per round. He missed the cut here the last two years, but I could see him making a run with more familiarity with the course. 

First-Round Lead

Iain MacMillan: Ryan Fox +6000 (DraftKings)

Ryan Fox enters this week in great form. He won the alternate field event Myrtle Beach Classic last month and followed it up with a T28 finish at the PGA Championship and a T20 at the Memorial Tournament. At Murifield Village last week, he gained strokes in all four areas, including gaining +1.11 true strokes per round with his approach play. His length off the tee is also going to give him an edge on the majority of the field this week. As a cherry on top, he’s 19th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average.

John Schwarb: Keith Mitchell +4500 (FanDuel)

My FRL picks have not been especially distinguished this season (O.K., you can say the same for a lot of my other picks too), so I’m not going to overthink this one. Keith Mitchell’s best days are Thursdays, which he may not exactly love, but bettors do. Let’s see if we can cash a nice-sized ticket on him being the rabbit again.

Brian Kirschner: Ricky Castillo +8000 (DraftKings) 

Another golfer who had his best performance of the season at TPC Craig Ranch is Ricky Castillo. I believe he possesses the elite OTT skill to contend on this course. Gaining OTT in his last seven starts, there is no question he has the combination of accuracy and distance to pop in the first round at TPC Toronto. Although a poor finish at Colonial, he gained over four strokes on approach. His game is trending.

Cody Williams: Keith Mitchell +4500 (FanDuel)

Keith Mitchell is about as chalky of a first-round leader play as humanly possible, but he also happens to fit the profile this week, so why not take another swing with the FRL king? He finished T7 at Philadelphia Cricket Club a few weeks ago, a spot that compares favorably to Osprey Valley, and continues to be a ball-striking maven. Until he proves otherwise, I remain skeptical of his overall win equity, but we’ve seen time and again that the man knows how to come out firing and go low over 18 holes. 

Brian Giuffra: Chris Gotterup +7000 (Bet365) 

Gotterup just played 36 holes in New Jersey on Monday to qualify for the U.S. Open. Presumably, he celebrated in his home state and didn’t have much time to prepare in Canada. But I’m going to ride the hot hand on a course that sets up well for him. He’s 11th on Tour in driving distance and seventh in scrambling. He is coming off his best SG: Approach performance this year at the Charles Schwab, where he was T28. Before that, he had four straight Top 20s. His game seems to be peaking. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Niklas Norgaard Top 20 +300 (DraftKings)

Niklas Norgaard is one of the longest drivers on the PGA Tour, ranking second in that stat, averaging 320.0 yards per drive this season. He also ranks inside the top half of the PGA Tour in strokes-gained approach, leading me to believe his ball striking is going to be good enough to have him in the mix in a relatively weak field. A top 20 finish isn’t too much to ask from him.

John Schwarb: Erik van Rooyen Top 20 +300 (DraftKings)

I tabbed the South African as my longshot this week but want to make sure I’m covered if he has a nice showing without going all the way, so let’s get down on a top-20 ticket for EVR and hope to see him on Sunday afternoon. 

Brian Kirschner: Jake Knapp Top 40 +120 (DraftKings)

I know the form has not been amazing recently, but I still think plus money for a top 40 is a valuable wager for this PGA Tour winner. This is a great golf course for Jake Knapp and his distance off the tee is going to help him find his way into the top 40 this week.

Cody Williams: Chris Gotterup Top 20 +275 (BetMGM)

As Brian mentioned, Chris Gotterup is coming off qualifying for the US Open on Monday, but he’s also simply been playing extremely well. He hasn’t finished worse than T28 in his last five starts, four of which came in at T18 or better as well. He’s first in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 16 rounds while being Top 10 in driving distance and Top 30 in SG: Approach more granularly. What stands out most, however, is that, while the putter has been unreliable, his around-the-green play has been stellar. Put that together and there’s a lot of value in this Top 20 play, even if fatigue after Monday is a bit of a worry.

Brian Giuffra: Sam Burns Top 20 +140 (DraftKings) 

Despite a recent cold streak, I’m sticking with what kept me plus-money in this market all season – picking a player to finish in the Top 20 who I believe can win. Burns is that player. I saw much worse odds at other sportsbooks, so make sure you odds shop on these for the best potential payout. +140 at DK was the best I found. 

Final Score

• Iain MacMillan: -16
• John Schwarb: -17
• Brian Kirschner: -19
• Cody Williams: -18
• Brian Giuffra: - 16