Chiefs vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 5 (Back Kansas City on Monday)

Kansas City is a road favorite in Week 5.

The Kansas City Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are favored in Week 5. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are in search of their third win in a row when they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 5. 

Jacksonville is 3-1 this season and thriving under new head coach Liam Coen, but oddsmakers have set the Jags as underdogs at home in this matchup.

The Chiefs covered the spread and put up a season-high 37 points in a Week 4 win over the Baltimore Ravens, a sign that their offense may be back to being one of the elite units in the league.

Still, can bettors trust the Chiefs to cover against an opportunistic Jaguars defense that has already forced 13 turnovers in four games?  

All season long, the SI Betting team will be sharing our score predictions for each NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets.

Using the latest odds and analysis for this Week 5 matchup, here’s my score prediction for Monday night’s Chiefs vs. Jaguars clash. 

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Chiefs -3.5 (-108)
• Jaguars +3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Chiefs: -175
• Jaguars: +145

Total

• 46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

There has been a little line movement in this game, as Kansas City opened as a three-point road favorite, but the spread has since moved to Chiefs -3.5. 

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the UNDER on Monday night: 

The Jaguars' defense is the reason why they're sitting at 3-1. They lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play, rank fifth in opponent success rate, and rank third in defensive DVOA. Offensively, they're just 18th in EPA per play and 14th in DVOA. Trevor Lawrence also ranks just 26th amongst starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE Composite, which is making me start to doubt the abilities of this Jaguars' offensive unit. The Chiefs' defense is also coming into this game off a strong defensive performance against the Baltimore Ravens, holding them to just 20 points.

I don’t mind the UNDER since the Jaguars are No. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense, but when it comes to winning this game, I lean with the Chiefs.

Kansas City looked much more explosive on offense in Week 4 with Xavier Worthy back in action, and the Jaguars are just 13th in EPA/Play and 20th in EPA/Pass on offense this season.

Jacksonville has also benefitted in a big way from a plus-nine turnover differential, but Patrick Mahomes isn’t exactly the easiest quarterback to pick off in the NFL.

I think KC rides the momentum from the last few weeks and picks up a road win. 

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Jaguars 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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