College Football Upset Picks for Week 9 (LSU Will Upset Texas A&M)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 22, 2025

LSU is a home underdog against Texas A&M in college football Week 9 action. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

We're officially past the halfway point of the 2025 college football regular season, but there's still plenty to figure out in terms of which teams will be competing for conference championships and a spot in the college football playoff.

Looking ahead to the Week 9 slate, there are plenty of interesting underdogs that are great candidates to pull off upset victories. Let's take a look at my top three upset bets for Saturday's slate of games.

CFB Week 9 Upset Picks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Memphis +180 vs. USF
• BYU +130 vs. Iowa State
• LSU +120 vs. Texas A&M

Memphis +180 vs. USF

Don't give up on Memphis just because the Tigers lost to UAB last week. Memphis still ranks 15th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, well above South Florida, which comes in at 34th. Bad games happen, and last week's Tigers game was a bad one. They'll bounce back with an upset win in Week 9.

BYU +130 vs. Iowa State

Iowa State does not deserve the respect it gets in the betting market, ranking just 64th in the country in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards per Play of a measly +0.37. BYU is a run-first team, which is bad news for an Iowa State defense that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season, the 83rd-ranked mark in the country.

LSU +120 vs. Texas A&M

This is the ultimate "sell high" spot on Texas A&M and "buy low" spot on LSU. Despite a couple of tough losses this season, LSU still ranks fairly high in some advanced metrics, including 39th in adjusted EPA per play. I also expect LSU to find some level of success throwing the football in this one. The Aggies rank 39th in the country in opponent EPA per dropback. Let's not forget about the home-field advantage that LSU has, which has been proven in its 6-0 ATS run at home against the Aggies. That's enough for me to take LSU to pull off the upset.

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