College Football Week 11 Best Bets (Expect Plenty of Points in Northwestern vs. USC)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 6, 2025

Bet the OVER in Friday night's game between Northwestern and USC. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

We're already a few days into Week 11 of the college football season, with MACtion getting things started off in the middle of the week.

If you're looking to get in on this weekend's action, you've come to the right place. In this article, I'm going to break down three of my favorite plays, including a bet on a total, a favorite, and an upset winner. Let's dive into them.

College Football Week 11 Best Bets

• Northwestern vs. USC OVER 51 (-110) via Caesars
• Oregon -6 (-110) vs. Iowa via BetMGM
• Missouri +215 vs. Texas A&M via Caesars

Northwestern vs. USC Prediction

The USC offense, by some metrics, is one of the best in the country. The Trojans lead all teams in adjusted EPA per play, yards per play (8.32), and Success Rate. That should lead to plenty of points against a Northwestern team that ranks 47th in opponent adjusted EPA per play.

The USC offense is nothing to write home about either, allowing 5.94 yards per play, while ranking 41st in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.

Pick: OVER 51 (-110)

Oregon vs. Iowa Prediction

In this week's edition of First to Forde, I broke down why Oregon covering as a favorite against Iowa is one of my top plays of the week:

This is a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes. Iowa's biggest strength is its stout defense, which can overwhelm most teams they face, but now they have to face an Oregon team that is just as good defensively but with a far better offense. The Ducks' defense ranks seventh in opponent adjusted EPA per play, while Iowa ranks 11th. Offensively, things aren't even closer. Oregon is 12th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, while Iowa ranks 75th. It also doesn't help matters that Iowa gets the majority of its yards from the running game, and now the Hawkeyes have to face an Oregon team that ranks 34th in opponent rush EPA while allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. I'll lay the points with the Ducks in this one.

Pick: Oregon -6 (-110)

Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction

Earlier this week, I wrote about three teams I'm betting on to pull off an upset this weekend. The Missouri Tigers is one of them:

Texas A&M's pass defense has been fantastic this season, but its run defense leaves something to be desired, which could come back to haunt them against a run-first Missouri offense. 51.69% of the offensive yards gained by the Tigers come from running the football, which is the 15th-highest rate in college football. They're also extremely effective at running the football, averaging 5.64 yards per carry and ranking 28th in the country in Rush EPA. Now, they face a Texas A&M team that ranks 90th in opponent rush success rate.

Missouri is primed to be in the mix to hand the Aggies' their first loss of the season.

Pick: Missouri +215

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