Commanders vs. Lions Best NFL Prop Bets for Divisional Round (Bet on Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 17, 2025

Jayden Daniels' rushing yards is too low for their playoff game against the Lions. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Saturday night divisional round showdown will feature the No. 1 seed, Detroit Lions, take on the Washington Commanders, who were the only wild-card team to come away victorious last weekend.

The Lions are set as 8.5-point favorites in this game, so if you'd rather attack the player prop market, you've come to the right place. In this article, I'm going to break down my top three player props for this NFC showdown.

Commanders vs. Lions Player Props

• Jayden Daniels OVER 53.5 Rush Yards (-105) via DraftKings
• Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 80.5 Rush Yards (-114) via FanDuel
• Jared Goff UNDER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-105) via Caesars

Jayden Daniels OVER 53.5 Rush Yards (-105)

In the divisional round edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59," I broke down why Jayden Daniels to go over his rushing yards total is my favorite prop bet for this game:

The Detroit Lions have struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks from racking up rush yards against them this season. They have allowed the fourth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks at 454.

Jayden Daniels averaged 52.4 rushing yards per game in the regular season so we only need him to get a few more yards than his season average to cash this bet. It's worth noting that while Daniels only had 36 yards on the ground against the Bucs, he did rack up 13 attempts which shows me he'll continue to take off with his legs throughout the postseason.

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 80.5 Rush Yards (-114)

The Commanders have struggled to stop the run all season, ranking 28th in opponent yards per carry (4.7), 27th in opponent EPA per rush, and 24th in opponent rush success rate. Even though David Montgomery is back in the lineup for Saturday night, I expect the Lions to give the bulk of the carries to Jahmyr Gibbs, who has eclipsed 100+ rushing yards in three straight games.

Jared Goff UNDER 33.5 Pass Attempts (-105)

The Lions have been a run-first football team, throwing the ball on 52.24% of their plays which is the seventh-lowest pass-play rate in the NFL. As a result, Jared Goff has averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game, well below his set total of 33.5 on Saturday night.

This bet could also be aided by game script. If the Lions take a significant lead, as the point spread indicates they might, the Lions may rely on their run game even more than they usually do, limiting Goff's pass attempts.

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