Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Juan Soto to Go Deep in Subway Series Opener)

Iain MacMillan | Jul 4, 2025

Bet on Juan Soto to hit a home run on Friday night against the Yankees. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Happy 4th of July to all our readers! Whether it's the hot dog eating contest, baseball, or both, there's nothing more American than placing a few dollars on today's sports slate. Additionally, no bet would be more electric to hit on Independence Day than a home run wager, so that's what I'm going to focus on in this article.

I'm targeting three players to go deep today, including Juan Soto to hit a home run against his former team in the series opener of this weekend's Subway Series.

Top Home Run Picks Today

• Juan Soto Home Run (+400) via BetMGM
• Maikel Garcia Home Run (+1000) via BetMGM
• Jung Hoo Lee Home Run (+550) via DraftKings

Juan Soto Home Run (+400)

The second leg of this season's Subway Series is set to take place this weekend, this time, it'll take place in Queens. Nothing would be more electric in today's opener for Juan Soto to hit a home run against his former team, and he's in a good spot to do exactly that.

Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Yankees today, and while he's only appeared in four games this season, he has given up a home run in three of them. If that trend continues, someone on the Mets is bound to hit a dinger against him. Let's take Soto at 4-1.

Maikel Garcia Home Run (+1000)

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight against the Kansas City Royals, and he has a 5.13 ERA while giving up 1.4 home runs per nine innings pitched. With him being a lefty, we can take advantage of his start tonight by targeting a member of the Royals lineup that has found success against left-handed arms.

That led me to Maikel Garcia of the Royals, whose slugging percentage improves from .445 against righties to .563 against lefties. Three of his eight home runs this season have also been against lefties, despite having significantly fewer looks against left-handed arms. He's a great look tonight at 10-1 odds.

Jung Hoo Lee Home Run (+550)

Jung Hoo Lee is another batter who has far better numbers against left-handed pitchers. His slugging percentage improves from .376 against righties to .494 against lefties. Tonight, he and the Giants will take on JP Sears of the Athletics, who has allowed 1.9 home runs per nine innings pitched, which is the ninth-highest rate amongst all starting pitchers.

---

As a new BetMGM user, you can now claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you create an account using BetMGM bonus code SI1500, deposit at least $10, and place a real money wager. If you lose your bet, BetMGM will return your entire stake as bonus bets.

Are you in MI, NJ, PA, or WV? If so, you can bet $10 and receive $150 in bonus bets from BetMGM if you win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!