Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Teoscar Hernandez, Jackson Chourio)

Breaking down the best home run picks on the diamond for a pair of NLDS Game 4s on Thursday, October 9.

Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Teoscar Hernandez is a good bet to go deep on Thursday night. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The MLB playoffs continue on Thursday with two Game 4s in the NLDS after the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies stayed alive on Wednesday.

While there may only be two games on the docket, there are still a few players worth targeting in the home run markets.

At SI Betting, we share our favorite home run props for every day of the MLB season, and there are a pair of outfielders that I’m targeting tonight.

Here’s a complete breakdown of these home run props for Thursday, Oct. 9.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Oct. 9:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+429)
• Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+540)

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+429)

Teoscar Hernandez started the playoffs strong with two home runs in Game 1 of the Wild Card round and another one in Game 1 in Philadelphia. While that one didn’t come off of Cristopher Sanchez, who struck him out three times, the outfielder is still 5 for 15 with two doubles and two home runs – both coming in 2025 – in his career against the southpaw.

This season, Hernandez slugged .467 with six home runs in 120 at bats against LHP as opposed to .450 with 19 HR in 391 AB, so it was about the same amount of at bats per home run. However, he had 16 home runs in 245 at bats at Dodger Stadium as opposed to just nine home runs in 266 at bats on the road.

Hernandez went 0 for 4 on Wednesday night, but two of those outs had exit velocities over 101 mph, and he had 99.2 mph and 103.4 mph singles in Game 3.

I’ll take Hernandez to get a hold of one at home at this price.

Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+540)

I took Jackson Chourio OVER 1.5 Total Bases in the Brewers vs. Cubs Game 4 betting preview, and a lot of that analysis applies here:

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio has been a key cog in the top of the lineup all season long, and the postseason is no different. 

Chourio has an extra-base hit in each of the first three games in this series, going 3-3 with a double in Game 1, 2 for 4 with a home run in Game 2, and 1 for 4 with a double last night.

If it is in fact Boyd starting for the Cubs, that’s more good news for Chourio. He’s 1 for 2 with a double against him in his career, but more importantly, Chourio hit .343 with a slugging percentage of .584 against left-handed pitchers this season.

He also thrives on the road with a .304 average and .502 slugging percentage away from American Family Field.

Chourio is hitting the ball hard and loud, and that should continue in Game 4.

On top of all of that, the wind is expected to be blowing slightly out to left field tonight at Wrigley Field. That can only help hitters like Chourio.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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