Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, April 16

Is Miami undervalued as a home underdog tonight?

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer is a great prop target on Wednesday. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks dropped 10 runs in their series opener against the Miami Marlins to move to 10-7 on the season, and they’ll aim to pick up a second straight win on Wednesday night with youngster Brandon Pfaadt on the mound.

This is one of the better young pitching matchups of the day, as the Marlins have righty Max Meyer toeing the rubber and he’s one of my favorite prop picks (which I shared later on in this story) for the entire MLB slate on April 16. 

Miami is .500 through 16 games this season, but oddsmakers have it set as an underdog at home on Wednesday.

Here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for tonight’s National League clash. 

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Diamondbacks -1.5 (+120
• Marlins +1.5 (-142)

Moneyline

• Diamondbacks: -142
• Marlins: +120

Total

• 8.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Arizona: Brandon Pfaadt (2-1, 3.50 ERA)
• Miami: Max Meyer (1-1, 2.00 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, April 16
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, ARID
• Diamondbacks record: 10-7
• Marlins record: 8-8

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Meyer OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s Best MLB Prop Bets column – Painting Corners – why Max Meyer is worth targeting on Wednesday night: 

Miami Marlins youngster Max Meyer has a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, but he may be undervalued when it comes to his strikeout prop.

Meyer has at least four punchouts in each of his outings this season, striking out 19 batters in 18.0 innings of work. Arizona averages less than seven K’s per game in the 2025 season,but Meyer’s advanced numbers are pretty impressive this season. He ranks in the: 

• 67th percentile in strikeout percentage
• 64th percentile in whiff percentage
• 61st percentile in chase rate
• 87th percentile in pitching run value

Meyer has also worked six or more innings in two of his three outings, giving him a few more chances to pick up strikeouts if he can get there in this one. At 3.5, this number is too low to pass up on Wednesday. 

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

I’m buying the Marlins as home underdogs in this matchup, as the underlying metrics for Brandon Pfaadt are quite concerning to open the 2025 season.

The Diamondbacks right ranks in the 15th percentile in expected ERA, 10th percentile in expected batting average against and 26th percentile in hard hit percentage. 

On top of that, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is nearly two runs higher than his ERA (5.08 vs. 3.50).

Meyer, on the other hand, has a 2.00 ERA and 2.63 FIP, leading the Marlins to wins in two of his three starts. In addition to that, he’s given up just four earned runs on the season. 

Even though Arizona is one of the better offenses in MLB (currently No. 2 in OPS), I think Meyer outshines Pfaadt in this matchup. 

Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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