Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 28

The Tigers are favored at home on Monday.

Detroit Tigers first base Spencer Torkelson is a great prop target on Monday. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers have won just two of their last 10 games, but they still have an eight-game lead atop of the AL Central heading into an interleague matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday.

The D-Backs have already begun to sell at this stage in the season, trading veteran Josh Naylor to the Seattle Mariners, and they’ll likely continue to sell off pieces ahead of the July 31 deadline.

Arizona is set as an underdog on Monday night with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (5.50 ERA) on the mound for the 18th time in the 2025 season. He’ll take on Tigers youngster Troy Melton, who was rocked for seven hits, six runs and two homers in his MLB debut earlier this month.

Can Melton turn things around at home for a Tigers team that has playoff expectations at this point in the season?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Monday’s series opener. 

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-188)
• Tigers -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Diamondbacks: +112
• Tigers: -136

Total

• 9 (Over -101/Under -120)

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Arizona: Eduardo Rodriguez (3-6, 5.50 ERA)
• Detroit: Troy Melton (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 28
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSDET, ARID
• Diamondbacks record: 51-55
• Tigers record: 61-46

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Spencer Torkelson to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Spencer Torkelson is worth a bet on Monday:

Detroit Tigers slugger Spencer Torkelson is up to 23 home runs in the 2025 season, and he has a great matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. 

Through 17 appearances in the 2025 season, Rodriguez has given up 16 home runs and he’s posted a 5.50 ERA. So, he’s a pretty easy pitcher to fade. 

Torkelson has a 1.003 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, and he’s hit nine home runs in just 101 at bats. On top of that, the Tigers youngster has been red hot at the dish, hitting two home runs over the last week while posting an OPS of .883 over the last 28 days.

This is a pretty solid price for Torkelson as he searches for his 24th home run of the 2025 season. 

Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

With the Tigers struggling as of late, I’m going to bet on the total in this matchup since neither Rodriguez nor Melton has pitched well as of late.

Over his last three starts (all in July), Rodriguez has a 7.36 ERA, and that’s with a scoreless outing in his last appearance. Obviously, Melton struggled in his MLB debut (six earned runs), and I think he’s going to continue to face some growing pains against an Arizona offense that ranks fourth in MLB in OPS and runs scored.

The issue for the D-Backs all season long has been their pitching, as they’re just 25th in MLB in team ERA.

Both of these teams have hit the OVER in the majority of their games as well:

• Detroit: 54-49-4 (52.4%)
• Arizona: 52-48-6 (52%)

With this total set below 10, I don’t mind taking the OVER. Plus, we get the benefit of a push if this lands on exactly nine runs. Given the pitching matchup, the OVER is a pretty solid value at nearly even money. 

Pick: OVER 9 (-101 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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