Dolphins vs. Bills Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 3 (Bet on Josh Allen)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is a solid prop target in Week 3. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are heavily favored in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins, but if bettors don’t want to lay the points in primetime, there are other ways to bet on this AFC East battle.

I’m eyeing a few player props for Thursday night’s action, including a pick for Allen in the passing game.

The Dolphins have been awful on defense, allowing 33 points in each of their first two games, so Allen and the Bills may end up running wild in this matchup. However, Miami should be able to put up some points as well, as Buffalo struggled to slow down the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 and has dealt with some major injuries in the secondary early on in 2025. 

With stars like Allen, James Cook, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane and others in this game, betting one player props feels like a no-brainer.

Here’s a breakdown of each play I’m taking on Thursday night.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Bills 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook.

• Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (-147)
• De’Von Achane OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• Dalton Kincaid OVER 2.5 Receptions (-175)

Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (-147)

The Dolphins have an all-new secondary in the 2025 season, and so far they have struggled to slow down Daniel Jones and Drake Maye through the air, allowing the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL.

I’m going to bet on Allen’s touchdown passes in Week 3, even though he failed to throw one in a blowout win over the New York Jets.

Allen had at least two scores in 10 of his regular-season games in 2024, and he threw two scores (on 46 pass attempts) in Week 1 against Baltimore.

The Dolphins have allowed 33 points in back-to-back games, and I expect Buffalo to be in the mix for 30 or more points in Week 3. 

De’Von Achane OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

So far this season, De’Von Achane has just 85 rushing yards in two games, but he’s only carried the ball 18 times.

Achane picked up 55 yards on just seven carries in Week 1 before a rough showing against the Patriots on the ground (11 carries, 30 yards) in Week 2. 

Now, he faces a Buffalo defense that is allowing a league-worst 6.8 yards per carry and allowed both the Ravens and Jets to rush for 100 yards in the 2025 season.

Achane should see a pretty steady workload in this one, and as long as he reaches double-digit carries, he’s a threat to clear this total. For his career, the former Texas A&M star is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 59.7 yards per game. 

Dalton Kincaid OVER 2.5 Receptions (-175)

I can’t believe this number is set at just 2.5 for Dalton Kincaid in Week 3, as he’s been targeted 10 times in the 2025 season, reeling in eight passes for 85 yards and a touchdown.

What’s even more impressive is Kincaid was targeted six times in Week 2 even though Buffalo threw for less than 200 yards as a team and attempted less than 30 passes. Kincaid has caught at least four balls in each game, giving him a pretty solid floor in this market. 

The Dolphins’ secondary has struggled to slow down much worse quarterbacks than Allen, so I think that’s a huge boost for all Bills pass catchers on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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