Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 3

The Bills are 23-3 in their home games dating back to the 2022 season.

The Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen are massive favorites in Week 3. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills are off to a 2-0 start in the 2025 season, knocking off the New York Jets in Week 2 in a blowout. 

Now, they’ll take on another winless AFC East team, as the Miami Dolphins come to town on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. Miami is coming off a loss to the New England Patriots – 33-27 – after giving up three scores to Drake Maye.

Miami has allowed 33 points in both games so far this season, and now it has to face one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL led by reigning league MVP Josh Allen.

The Bills are obviously favorites at home in Week 3, and they’re looking to run the table against division opponents for as long as possible to capture another AFC East title.

Can Miami at least cover despite two poor showings to open 2025?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Thursday Night Football matchup.  

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Dolphins +12.5 (-110)
• Bills -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Dolphins: +490
• Bills: -675

Total

• 49.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dolphins vs. Bills How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 18
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Dolphins record: 0-2
• Bills record: 2-0

Dolphins vs. Bills Betting Trends

• The Dolphins are 0-2 against the spread this season.
• The Bills are 2-0 against the spread this season.
• The OVER is 1-1 in the games for both teams this season.
• The Bills are 1-0 against the spread at home.
• The Dolphins are 0-1 against the spread on the road. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Injury Reports

Dolphins Injury Report

• TBA

Bills Injury Report

• TBA

Dolphins vs. Bills Key Player to Watch

Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo Bills

This is a dream matchup for Allen, as Miami has allowed massive games to Daniel Jones and Drake Maye to open the season:

• Daniel Jones vs. MIA in Week 1: 22/29, 272 yards, TD, 7 carries, 26 yards, 2 TDs
• Drake Maye vs. MIA in Week 2: 19/23, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 10 carries, 31 yards, TD

Allen only needed to throw for 148 yards to beat the Jets in Week 2, but he did throw for 394 yards and a pair of scores in Week 1. He should have a field day against a Miami secondary that has seen a ton of turnover since last season and has already been banged up in 2025. 

The Dolphins have allowed 33 points in both of their games this season. 

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

There’s just no way that I can bet on the Dolphins right now.

This team has allowed over 30 points to two average offenses, and now it has to face a Buffalo team that could end up being the highest-scoring team in the league in the 2025 season.

Buffalo has only lost three games at home since the start of the 2022 season, and it’s already shown that it can play a shoutout and win like it did in Week 1 against the Ravens. 

Miami is 0-2 against the spread, failing to cover as a slight road underdog in Week 1 and a home favorite in Week 2. Mike McDaniel’s team appears to be going nowhere fast, as the defense is extremely leaky in the secondary after moving from Jalen Ramsey, Jevon Holland and Jordan Poyer in the offseason.

Buffalo’s defense didn’t look great in Week 1, but it held the Jets to just 10 points in Week 2 and controlled the game from the jump.

Even though Miami’s offense was more explosive against New England, it only scored 20 points on offense (one touchdown came from a punt return). 

I think Buffalo – which was able to rest Allen at the end of the Week 2 win – wins in a blowout in a short week. 

Pick: Bills -12.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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