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Dolphins vs. Browns Best NFL Prop Bets and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for NFL Week 7
Dillon Gabriel's first two starts in the NFL didn't go as planned, but now he and the Browns are set to take on one of the worst defenses in the league in the Miami Dolphins. That makes this a perfect game to get in on the player prop market, so let's take a look at three of my favorites for this AFC showdown.
Dolphins vs. Browns Best NFL Prop Bet
- Dillon Gabriel OVER 176.5 Passing Yards (-108) via Caesars
- De'Von Achane UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114) via FanDuel
- Jerry Jeudy Anytime Touchdown (+280) via DraftKings
Dillon Gabriel OVER 176.5 Passing Yards (-108)
The Dolphins' secondary has been horrific to start the season. They rank 31st in opponent dropback EPA and last in opponent dropback success rate. Dillon Gabriel has struggled in his first two starts, but he had to take on two very good defenses in the Vikings and Steelers. Now is the time to buy low on the rookie quarterback as he takes on a lowly Dolphins secondary.
De'Von Achane UNDER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
One of the biggest strengths for the Browns has been their run defense. They rank second in opponent rush EPA and third in opponent rush success rate. If the Dolphins want to get the ball in De'Von Achane's hands, throwing him the ball in short routes is going to be their best course of action. No teams have found success running against the Browns, and I don't expect Achane to be the first.
Jerry Jeudy Anytime Touchdown (+280)
In this week's edition of the Player Prop Countdown, I broke down why I ranked Jerry Jeudy to score as my No. 8-ranked play:
Jerry Jeudy's production has been relatively quiet since Dillon Gabriel took over as quarterback, but now he and the Browns' passing game get an extremely favorable matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Dolphins allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt while ranking 31st in opponent dropback EPA and last in opponent dropback success rate. It's rare to be able to bet on a team's starting receiver at north of 2-1 odds to score a touchdown, so I'm going to jump on this opportunity in Week 7.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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-eb6ee9a9f2179a90cbfe0d8c654d1a62.jpg "Iain MacMillan")
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.