Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

Can the Dolphins pull off a road win in Week 1?

The Miami Dolphins are 38-24 all time when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa gets the start. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

There’s a new quarterback in town in Indianapolis, as Daniel Jones beat out 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson for the starting job. 

The Indianapolis Colts and head coach Shane Steichen are hoping to be in the playoff mix in a weak AFC South division, but they’ll be relying on Danny Dimes to get there. Not exactly ideal.

In Week 1, the Colts are underdogs against the Miami Dolphins, although this line opened with Indy favored by 1.5 points. Things have flipped since then, as the Dolphins are expected to have running back De’Von Achane in action (barring a setback) in this Week 1 game.

Miami is coming off an 8-9 season where it struggled mightily without Tua Tagovailoa, losing four of the six games he missed. Tagovailoa’s health is going to be the driving force for success or failure in Miami this season, and there have been some questionable reports coming out from Dolphins camp about the dysfunction surrounding the team.

With an all new secondary, the Dolphins could be one of the worst defenses in the league – especially if pass rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips don’t stay healthy. 

Still, oddsmakers are buying them in Week 1. So, how should we bet on it?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, trends, injuries, players to watch and a prediction for this AFC battle in Week 1. 

Dolphins vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Dolphins -0.5 (-110)
• Colts +0.5 (-110)

Moneyline 

• Dolphins: -112 
• Colts: -108

Total

• 47.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Dolphins vs. Colts How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 7
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Dolphins record: 0-0
• Colts record: 0-0

Dolphins vs. Colts Betting Trends

• The Colts were 9-8 against the spread in 2024.
• The Dolphins were 7-10 against the spread in 2024. 
• The UNDER was 9-8 in the Dolphins’ games in 2024. 
• The OVER was 9-7-1 in the Colts’ games in 2024. 

Dolphins vs. Colts Injury Reports

Dolphins Injury Report

• De'Von Achane – questionable
• Jaylen Wright – questionable
• Jason Sanders – out
• Ashtyn Davis – questionable
• Liam Eichenberg – out

Colts Injury Report

• Josh Downs – questionable
• Tyler Goodson – questionable
• Ashton Dulin – questionable

Dolphins vs. Colts Key Player to Watch

• Tyreek Hill, Wide Receiver, Dolphins

The 2024 season was a nightmare for Hill, as he finished with under 1,000 yards for the first time in a Dolphins uniform and essentially quit on the team in Week 17 – taking himself out of the game.

Hill dealt with a wrist injury all season long, but he appears to be healthy (barring a setback with a preseason oblique issue) entering 2025. A lot of Hill’s success in 2025 will hinge on the health of Tua Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins desperately need him to return to the form where he looked like one of the three best receivers in the NFL.

Hill was also not named a captain for the first time in Miami, so it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with that this season. 

Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction and Pick

Will Jones prove to be the shot in the arm that the Colts need to get back in the playoffs? It’s a tall task for a quarterback that has underperformed his draft spot for the majority of his NFL career.

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan – our NFL betting insider – gave his take on this game in his Road to 272 column, where he picks every game of the NFL season:

There's been lots of chatter in the offseason and preseason that the Miami Dolphins are a dysfunctional team, but that's propaganda I'm not ready to fall for. We can't forget about the level of talent and speed they have offensively, especially when compared to the Colts' offense, led by Daniel Jones.

Based on talent alone, the Dolphins are the better team in this Week 1 matchup.

Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are 25-16 straight up when Tagovailoa starts, and as a Dolphin, Tua is 38-24 as a starter. He’s going to be out there for Week 1, and that’s a sign that the Dolphins are a great bet, especially in a game set as a pick’em. 

Even with a lot of the questions around the Miami defense, can bettors really trust Jones to take advantage? 

I’m not buying it. Give me Miami to win in Week 1. 

Pick: Dolphins Moneyline (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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