Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur Prediction, Odds for US Open Quarterfinals

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur match in the US Open quarterfinals.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is an underdog in the US Open quarterfinals. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

No. 8 Alex de Minaur is back in the quarterfinals of the US Open on Wednesday, and he’ll take on No. 25 Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Last year, de Minaur made the quarters in the US Open for the second time in his career, but has never made it past the quarters in any Grand Slam event. 

Auger-Aliassime has a semifinal showing at the US Open (2021), but this is his first time since then where he’s made it past the second round in New York.

Oddsmakers have de Minaur set as a slight favorite in this match, but it seems this is a true toss up.

Let’s dive into the odds, each player’s path to this spot and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Felix Auger Aliassime: +120
• Alex de Minaur: -150

Total

• 38.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 3
• Time: 11:30 a.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Felix Auger-Aliassime: How Did They Get Here?

Auger-Aliassime has played well at the 2025 US Open, winning three of his four matches in straight sets.

In Round 4, he disposed of No. 15 Andrey Rublev in straight sets, winning 7-6, 6-3, 6-4. 

He’s only matched up with de Minaur three times in his career, winning two of them (both in 2022). The two players haven’t faced each other since 2024.  

Alex de Minaur: How Did They Get Here?

This is the first time de Minaur will have to face a ranked opponent at this year’s US Open, but he has won three of his four matches in straight sets.

On Monday, he knocked off Leandro Riedi in Round 4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, to set up a quarterfinal match with Auger-Aliassime. The last time these two faced off, de Minaur won 6-7 (2), 6-4, 6-4 at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome. 

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – de Minaur -150 – the No. 8 player in the world has an implied probability of 60.0 percent to make the semifinals at the US Open for the first time in his career.

Despite that, I’m betting on an upset on Wednesday morning.

Auger-Aliassime has made the semis at the US Open before, and he’s 2-1 against de Minaur in their career matches, including a win in the Davis Cup Finals. In fact, Auger-Aliassime has won both matches between these players on hard surfaces while de Minaur’s lone win came on clay.

Auger-Aliassime has not played well at the US Open since 2021, but I think he’s worth a shot as an underdog after winning three of his four matches in this year’s tournament in straight sets. 

Pick: Auger-Aliassime to Win (+120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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