Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Semifinals Game 1

The Aces are favored by nine points in Game 1.

Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson is a great prop target in Game 1. / Candice Ward-Imagn Images

The Indiana pulled off a thrilling first-round upset in the WNBA playoffs, winning back-to-back games, including a fourth-quarter comeback in Game 3, to advance to the WNBA Semifinals.

On Sunday, they’ll take on the No. 2-seeded Las Vegas Aces, who have lost just one game in September and have been the best team in the WNBA since the All-Star break.

A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray lead a core that has won the title before, and oddsmakers have the Aces favored in a big way in Game 1 on Sunday.

Indiana is without several rotation players for the rest of the season, including superstar guard Caitlin Clark (groin), but the Fever have been able to hang around all season with several players stepping up.

Plus, guard Kelsey Mitchell is undoubtedly one of the best players in the W, scoring the ball at a high clip in the playoffs.

Here’s a breakdown of Game 1 of this semifinal series, including the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction.

Fever vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Fever +9 (-115)
• Aces -9 (-105)

Moneyline

• Fever: +330
• Aces: -425

Total

• 164 (Over -108/Under -112)

Fever vs. Aces How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 21
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 0-0

Fever vs. Aces Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

• Damiris Dantas – out
• Caitlin Clark – out
• Sophie Cunningham – out
• Chloe Bibby – out
• Aari McDonald – out
• Sydney Colson – out

Aces Injury Report

• None to report

Fever vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bets

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

• A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-115)

Wilson was named the WNBA MVP on Sunday – her second straight MVP and fourth overall – and I’m buying her to have a big game this afternoon.

In the playoffs so far, Wilson is averaging 29.3 points per game while shooting 55.4 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from beyond the arc. The Aces superstar is also averaging 18.7 shots per game, taking 26 shots to score 38 of the Aces’ 74 points in their Game 3 win over the Storm.

The Fever finished the regular season at seventh in defensive rating, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Wilson have a huge game on Sunday afternoon. 

Fever vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Fever may be a solid bet as underdogs in this game:  

Are the Fever undervalued in Game 1?

As good as the Aces have been in the second half of the 2025 season, they only won by one point against the Seattle Storm in Game 3 of the first round.

Las Vegas did pick up a blowout win in Game 1, but these teams are coming into Sunday’s matchup with equal rest after closing out their respective first-round series on Thursday.

Kelsey Mitchell and the Fever beat a dominant home team in the Atlanta Dream on Thursday, and Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard still form a formidable core – even with all of Indiana's injuries.

Indiana went 2-1 against Las Vegas in the regular season, although these teams didn’t play during Indiana’s lengthy winning streak in the second half of the campaign.

Still, nine points is way too many to give this Fever squad that has shown time and time again that it can compete with anyone in the league even with Caitlin Clark out the lineup.

I’ll take the points in this Game 1 matchup, as I’m expecting a few less blowouts in the semifinals than we saw in the first round. 

Pick: Fever +9 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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