Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Fever-Aces, Mercury-Lynx, Alyssa Thomas)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for opening matchups of the WNBA Semifinals on Sunday, Sept. 21.

Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas is a great prop target on Sunday. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

And then there were four.

The WNBA Semifinals begin on Sunday afternoon, as the No. 6-seeded Indiana Fever take on the Las Vegas Aces and the No. 4-seeded Phoenix Mercury face the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx.

The 2025 season won’t have a repeat champion, as the Mercury knocked the New York Liberty out of the playoffs in the first round despite losing Game 1 in their first-round series.

While New York failed to advance to semifinals, the top two seeds in the league (Minnesota and Las Vegas) were able to win their first-round matchups.

The Lynx were the only team that didn’t need three games to defeat their first-round opponent, and they’re the clear favorite to win the title in 2025.

Oddsmakers have set both home teams as favorites on Sunday, as the Aces are favored by nine over Indiana while the Lynx are eight-point favorites against Phoenix.

So, which teams should we bet on? 

I have some game picks and player props I’m eyeing for these semifinal matchups, and here are my favorites for Sunday’s action. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 78-79-2 (-2.95 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 162-155-2 (+1.51 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Alyssa Thomas OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-125)
• Indiana Fever +9 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Alyssa Thomas OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-125)

Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has been a beast on the glass in the playoffs, grabbing nine, six and 11 rebounds in her three games.

The only game that she failed to clear this number was in a 26-point blowout win over the Liberty where she played just 26 minutes. In the other two games of the first round, Thomas played over 37 minutes of action.

The Lynx were a dominant team all season long, but they ranked just seventh in the W in rebounding percentage. 

Thomas averaged 8.8 rebounds per game in the regular season, so I wouldn't be shocked if she’s around her season average in this matchup. 

Indiana Fever +9 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Are the Fever undervalued in Game 1?

As good as the Aces have been in the second half of the 2025 season, they only won by one point against the Seattle Storm in Game 3 of the first round.

Las Vegas did pick up a blowout win in Game 1, but these teams are coming into Sunday’s matchup with equal rest after closing out their respective first-round series on Thursday.

Kelsey Mitchell and the Fever beat a dominant home team in the Atlanta Dream on Thursday, and Mitchell, Aliyah Boston and Natasha Howard still form a formidable core – even with all of Indiana's injuries.

Indiana went 2-1 against Las Vegas in the regular season, although these teams didn’t play during Indiana’s lengthy winning streak in the second half of the campaign.

Still, nine points is way too many to give this Fever squad that has shown time and time again that it can compete with anyone in the league even with Caitlin Clark out the lineup.

I’ll take the points in this Game 1 matchup, as I’m expecting a few less blowouts in the semifinals than we saw in the first round.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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