Fever vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 16

The Liberty are heavily favored at home on Wednesday.

Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is a great prop target on Wednesday. / Grace Smith/IndyStar

The Indiana Fever picked up a hard-fought win over the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday night, and they have a quick turnaround ahead of the All-Star break, as they’ll face the 14-6 New York Liberty on Wednesday.

New York has won back-to-back games (but also just five of its last 10) and is 3.5 games out of the top spot in the W. Entering Wednesday’s action, the Liberty are behind both the Minnesota Lynx (No. 1 in the WNBA) and Phoenix Mercury in the standings. 

However, oddsmakers have the Liberty set as massive favorites in this game, as there seems to be a real chance that Caitlin Clark (groin) will not play for Indiana.

Clark missed several games with the injury earlier this season, and she potentially aggravated the injury in Tuesday’s win over the Sun.

Coach White on Caitlin Clark's late injury vs. Sun:

"No update. Just felt a little something in her groin so we'll get it evaluated and see what happens from there."

— Underdog WNBA (@UnderdogWNBA) July 16, 2025

With the All-Star break this weekend, the Fever would be smart to let Clark rest the second night of a back-to-back, especially since they’re going to need to make a second-half push to truly move up in the standings.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, how to bet on it in the prop market and my prediction as the All-Star break awaits after tonight’s action. 

Fever vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Fever +10 (-110)
• Liberty -10 (-110)

Moneyline

• Fever: +400
• Liberty: -535

Total

• 164.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Fever vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 16
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): CBSSN
• Fever record: 12-10
• Liberty record: 14-6

Fever vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

• Caitlin Clark – day-to-day

Liberty Injury Report

• Jonquel Jones – out
• Annika Soltau – out

Fever vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Fever Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 18.5 Points (-115)

With Clark’s status up in the air, I love betting on Kelsey Mitchell in the prop market.

The Fever guard has been arguably their best player all season long, averaging 19.3 points, 1.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game while shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Mitchell should have the ball in her hands even more often if Clark doesn’t play, and she’s averaging 21.9 points on 14.9 shots per game over her last 10 games. During that 10-game stretch, Mitchell has shot 53.0 percent from the field and 48.3 percent from 3. 

She also dropped 22 points on the Liberty the last time these teams faced off. This prop line is a steal for the three-time All-Star on Wednesday night. 

Fever vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

I don’t love laying double-digit points with the Liberty in this game – even if Clark sits – as they’ve been rather inconsistent with Jonquel Jones (ankle) out of the lineup.

Still, New York has one of the best offenses in the WNBA, ranking second in the league in offensive rating and third in effective field goal percentage. The Fever aren’t far behind, as they clock in at third in offensive rating and second in effective field goal percentage this season.

However, Indiana’s defense has slipped as of late, falling to No. 5 in the league, and the Fever dipped as far as No. 8 in defensive rating before a solid showing on Tuesday night. 

These teams have not been great at hitting the OVER this season (New York is 10-10 while Indiana is 10-12), but I think it’s the right play on Wednesday. 

In the two previous meetings between these teams, they combined for 190 and 178 points, well clear of the line set for Wednesday. While it’s likely lower with Clark’s status up in the air, I still think this Indiana team has enough effective offensive pieces to push this game over 164.5 points. 

Pick: OVER 164.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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