First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 6

Iain MacMillan | Oct 1, 2025

College Football Week 6 Picks / Sports Illustrated

After back-to-back weeks where Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan remained tied in the race to 40 correct college football spread picks, Forde has taken the 14-11 lead after a phenomenal 4-1 record in Week 5.

The race to 40 spread picks continues in Week 6. As always, each competitor has their top five picks locked in. Let's take a look at them.

Pat's Week 6 Picks

Houston +11.5 vs. Texas Tech (via Caesars)

This might be the occasion where an open date hurts, instead of helping a team. The Red Raiders were off last week after pummeling Utah. Having spent two weeks receiving unprecedented praise and attention, did they lose any edge? Are they ready for a road trip to play another undefeated team? The Cougars have a capable quarterback in Conner Weigman and have done a nice job taking care of the ball this year (just one turnover). They will keep it close.

Clemson -14 vs. North Carolina (via BetMGM)

Simply put, the Tigers are better than they’ve played thus far, and they have reached the point of no return on the season. Expect a better showing. Also, simply put, the Tar Heels are bad and have been pummeled by the two power-conference teams they’ve faced by an average margin of 29.5 points.

Georgia -20.5 vs. Kentucky (via FanDuel)

The Bulldogs always win but often struggle against the Wildcats – in Lexington. In Athens? Not so much. The average margin of victory in the last six meetings between the hedges is 28.5 points. Kentucky has started redshirt freshman Cutter Boley at quarterback for the last two games, and the growing pains have been clear. An angry Georgia defense will make things worse for Boley.

Notre Dame -18 vs. Boise State (via Fanatics)

The Fighting Irish are red hot offensively, and the Broncos haven’t been very good on the road. They were trucked to South Florida to open the season and then got caught in a shootout against a bad Air Force team. If the Falcons can throw for 246 yards on the Broncos, there’s no telling what Notre Dame might put up.

Arizona -20 vs. Oklahoma State (via BetMGM)

Wildcats have been good at home, and the Cowboys have been bad everywhere. If Arizona holds on to the ball, this shouldn’t be close.

Iain's Week 6 Picks

Purdue +9.5 vs. Illinois (via Caesars)

This is a big sell-high spot on Illinois after its win against USC last week. I'm not buying that they're 10 points better at Purdue in this Big Ten matchup. The Fighting Illini are just 84th in the country in adjusted EPA this season, two spots below Purdue at 82nd. It's also worth noting that Purdue leans more on the passing game than the run game, and Illinois ranks 95th in opponent dropback EPA. The Boilermakers have the stylistic advantage in this game.

Vanderbilt +10.5 vs. Alabama (via Caesars)

While it's true that Vanderbilt hasn't exactly faced elite competition this season, the advanced metrics love this team. They rank fourth in the country in adjusted EPA while rocking an impressive Net Yards per Play of +3.18. Last week's win against Georgia isn't enough for me to forgive Alabama for how the Crimson Tide looked in Week 1 against Florida State. I'll take the points with the Commodores.

Florida State +4.5 vs. Miami (via DraftKings)

I'm willing to look past Florida State's loss to Virginia last week. The Seminoles still outrank Miami in adjusted EPA per play and Net Yards per Play. The Hurricanes have strung together some impressive wins this season, but this is the time to sell high on this team.

Texas Tech -11.5 vs. Houston (via FanDuel)

Houston runs the ball on 57.35%, which is the 32nd highest rate in the country. That means the Cougars are going to have a problem if they face a strong run defense. Unfortunately for them, Texas Tech leads the country in opponent EPA per rush while allowing a measly 2.6 yards per carry. If Houston can't find a way to establish the run, Texas Tech is going to run away with this one.

Mississippi State +13.5 vs. Texas A&M (via FanDuel)

We have the opposite situation as above in this game between Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs run the ball on 57.84% of their plays, the 30th highest percentage amongst all teams. In Week 6, they'll face a Texas A&M team that has a strong secondary but has struggled to stop the run. The Aggies rank 66th in opponent rush EPA and allow teams to average 4.76 yards per rush. This advantage for Mississippi State is enough to help them cover this 13.5-point spread.

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