First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 9

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Oct 23, 2025

College Football Week 9 picks / Sports Illustrated

All good hot streaks eventually come to an end, and that's what happened with Pat Forde's picks last week. After going 12-3 over the prior three weeks, the SI Senior Writer went 1-4 in Week 8. Unfortunately, his competitor, Iain MacMillan, wasn't able to gain much ground in their race to 40 correct college football spread picks, going just 2-3 on the week.

We move on to Week 9, and both competitors have their top five picks locked in for this week's slate of games. Let's take a look at them.

Pat's Week 9 Picks

Boise State -21.5 at Nevada (via BetMGM)

The Wolf Pack are 1-6 and winless against FBS competition. They haven’t scored more than 22 points in a game this year. The Broncos, conversely, have scored more than 40 points on everyone but Notre Dame and South Florida. Protect the ball, rack up the touchdowns, win big.

Virginia Tech -4.5 vs. California (via BetMGM)

The Hokies have 13 days between games, while the Golden Bears are traveling across the country for a Friday contest after going to the wire at home to beat North Carolina last week. The Cal offense has been held to less than 300 yards in the last two games and three of the last four. 

Minnesota +9.5 at Iowa (via DraftKings)

Unless the opponent is hopeless Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes play close games. The Gophers reignited their pass rush against Nebraska and should be able to harass Mark Gronowski, who hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass against a power-conference opponent this season. Avoiding giving up scramble yards will be key to keeping it close.

Washington State -1 vs. Toledo (via Caesars)

Getting to The Palouse isn’t easy, and this midseason removal of the Rockets from their MAC routine could be a stress test. Washington State is back home after tenacious road losses to Mississippi and Virginia, and should have the defense to keep this game low-scoring.

Washington -4.5 vs. Illinois (via BetMGM)

Demond Williams had his worst game of the season last week for the Huskies against Michigan; expect him to bounce back at home, where the Huskies have been very tough over the years. The Illini defense hasn’t traveled well, giving up more than 435 yards and 6 yards per play in three road games.

Iain's Week 9 Picks

Indiana -25.5 vs. UCLA (via DraftKings)

UCLA has been a fun story the past few weeks, but the Cinderella run will end on Saturday. The Bruins' win against Penn State looks less impressive in hindsight, and the Bruins failed to cover the spread in their win against Rutgers. Don't think Indiana is anything other than one of the few truly elite teams in the country. Indiana ranks fourth amongst all teams in adjusted EPA per play, and they lead all teams in net success rate at +19.6%, which is 2.5% better than any other team. Despite their three-game win streak, the Bruins still rank in the bottom third of the country in virtually every metric. Indiana is going to cruise past UCLA based on skill and talent alone.

Oklahoma -4.5 vs. Ole Miss (via DraftKings)

Ole Miss runs the ball on 55.03% of their offensive plays, but it's going to be in trouble if it continues that strategy against an Oklahoma defense that has allowed 2.3 yards per carry this season, the second-best mark in college football.

Georgia Tech -17.5 vs. Syracuse (via DraftKings)

Georgia Tech runs the ball on 60.05% of its plays, which ranks 13th in the country. Now, they get to take on a Syracuse team that has struggled to stop the run the entire season, giving up 4.8 yards per play, which ranks 104th in the country. Syracuse also ranks 72nd in opponent rush EPA. Alternatively, Syracuse is a pass-first offense, and now the Orange will face a Georgia Tech team that allows just 6.9 yards per pass attempt. If styles make fights, Georgia Tech has a significant advantage in this game.

Memphis +5.5 vs. South Florida (via FanDuel)

Don't give up on Memphis just because the Tigers lost to UAB last week. Memphis still ranks 15th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, well above South Florida, which comes in at 34th. Bad games happen, and last week's Tigers game was a bad one. They'll bounce back with an upset win in Week 9.

LSU +2.5 vs. Texas A&M (via DraftKings)

This is the ultimate "sell high" spot on Texas A&M and "buy low" spot on LSU. Despite a couple of tough losses this season, LSU still ranks fairly high in some advanced metrics, including 39th in adjusted EPA per play. Let's not forget about the home-field advantage that LSU has, which has been proven in its 6-0 ATS run at home against the Aggies. That's enough for me to take the points with LSU in this one.

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