Florida vs. Miami Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

Miami is favored at home against Florida.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck is looking to lead his team to a 4-0 start. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Hurricanes are the No. 4 team in the country and off to an impressive 3-0 start ahead of their in-state rivalry matchup with the Florida Gators in Week 4.

Florida is coming off a brutal loss to LSU in Week 3, as DJ Lagway threw five interceptions and the team scored just 10 points to fall to 1-2 in the 2025 season. Florida has games against No. 4 Miami, No. 8 Texas and No. 10 Texas A&M coming up, and it likely has played itself out of College Football Playoff contention already in 2025.

Meanwhile, Miami looks like the favorite to win the ACC with Carson Beck putting himself back in the Heisman conversation.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Week 4 matchup. 

Florida vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Florida +7.5 (-110)
• Miami -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Florida: +245
• Miami: -305

Total

• 52.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Florida vs. Miami How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 13
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Florida record: 1-2
• Miami record: 3-0

Florida vs. Miami Key Player to Watch

Carson Beck, Quarterback, Miami

After a rough 2024 season at Georgia that ended with an injury, Beck has come out on a mission in 2025, throwing for 812 yards and seven scores in three games for the Hurricanes.

He leads the country in completion percentage (79.3 percent), yards per attempt and passer rating so far this season.

Miami should rely on Beck once again on Saturday against a Florida team that has dropped two games in a row and has struggled to score all season long. Beck has some familiarity with the Gators from his time at Georgia in the SEC. 

Florida vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

This line suggests that Vegas isn’t quite ready to give up on the Gators, but I am.

What has DJ Lagway done in the 2025 season to instill any confidence that Florida can keep up with one of the best offenses in the country?

He’s thrown six interceptions in three games, and the Gators have failed to crack 17 points in back-to-back games after hanging 55 points on Long Island in an easy Week 1 win.

Meanwhile, Beck has led the Miami offense to an average of 486 yards per game while the Hurricanes have scored 27 points against then-No. 6 Notre Dame and 49 points against then-No. 18 South Florida.

The Gators played South Florida in Week 2 and lost 18-16 while Miami beat the Bulls by 37 points in Week 3. 

At home, Miami should be able to dominate this Florida team that simply can’t keep up offensively at the moment. Even if the Gators hold the Hurricanes in check on offense (like they did against LSU) a 10-point win for Miami would still easily cover this number. 

Pick: Miami -7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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